000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021523
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell with a period of 10 to 16 seconds is moving 
across the E Pacific open waters N of 20N, with peak seas to 16 
ft per recent altimeter data. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the 
waters N of 20N and W of 115W. These 12 ft seas will continue to
slowly propagate SE while subsiding. By Sat, seas associated 
with this swell will subside below 12 ft. Also early on Sat, a 
new cold front will enter the NW waters bringing a new set of NW 
swell with seas 12 ft or greater over the far NW waters. Seas 
will peak near 18 ft with this swell on Sat night. The 12 ft seas
will spread S and E, covering much of the waters N of 08N and W 
of 128W by Tue night before starting to subside below 12 ft. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
06N77W to 04N96W. The ITCZ continues from 04N96W to 06N110W to 
beyond 04N140W. No significant convection is noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 
 
A cold front extends across the far northern Gulf of California,
across Baja California Norte, then SW to near 21N140W. The front
has ushered in a large set of NW swell, with seas of 8-14 ft 
over the waters off Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong winds 
are over the Gulf of California waters N of 26N, where seas are
in the 4-7 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds are noted W of the
Baja California peninsula. Fresh to strong gap winds are over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are reaching 7 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail over the open
waters off Mexico. Elsewhere in the Gulf of California, gentle 
to moderate winds prevail, with seas in the 2-3 ft range. 

For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Gulf of 
California across Baja California Sur into the waters off Baja 
California Sur. The cold front will spread across the remainder 
of the Baja California peninsula today while weakening. Large NW 
swell ushered in from the front will spread across the waters off
the Baja California peninsula into this weekend, then across the
waters off SW Mexico through the weekend. The next gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected early next week, 
with gale force winds possible starting Mon night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale winds are found over the Gulf of Papagayo, 
where seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-6 ft are found in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to 
moderate winds extends downstream of Papagayo and Panama. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds in the 
Papagayo region are expected to continue through this morning. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
diminish today. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will 
prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event. 

A cold front extends from Baja California Sur SW to near 
20N140W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted on either side of the 
front N of 25N, and westward to near 130W. The front has ushered 
in a large set of NW swell. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas 
discussed above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters NW of a 
line from Baja California Norte to near 10N140W. High pressure of
1020 mb is centered N of the front near 26N136W. Light winds are
in the vicinity of the high center. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of 
the ITCZ to near 15N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds are 
found elsewhere across the waters, with seas in the 5-7 ft. 

For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will spread SE through
the first half of the weekend, covering much of the waters N of
05N and W of 110W by Sat night before subsiding. Low pressure
will approach the NW waters Fri, with associated cold front
approaching the NW waters Fri evening. Fresh to strong winds are
expected ahead and behind the front. The front will usher in
another set of large NW swell, as discussed in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section above. The area low pressure will strengthen
while moving eastward near 31N. This could bring gale force 
winds into the forecast waters by late Sat afternoon or Sat 
evening.

$$
Ramos