000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020209
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell with a period of 10 to 16 seconds is moving 
across the E Pacific open waters, with peak seas near 18 ft. 
Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of 24N and W of 119W.
These 12 ft seas will continue to slowly propagate SE while 
subsiding. By Sat, seas associated with this swell will subside 
below 12 ft. Also on Sat, new cold front will enter the NW waters
bringing a new set of NW swell with seas 12 ft or greater over 
the far NW waters. Seas will peak near 18 ft with this swell on 
Sat night. The 12 ft seas will spread S and E, covering much of 
the waters N of 08N and W of 128W by Tue night before starting to
subside below 12 ft. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
07N77W to 06N86W. The ITCZ continues from 06N86W to 04N105W to
06N111W to beyond 04N140W. No significant convection is noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 
 
A cold front extends across the far northern Gulf of California,
across Baja California Norte, then SW to near 21N140W. The front
has ushered in a large set of NW swell, with seas of 8-13 ft over
the waters off Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong winds are
within 60 nm SE of the front, as well as over the far northern
Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds are noted W of the
front. Fresh to strong gap winds are over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, where seas are reaching 7 ft. Moderate to fresh
winds are west of Baja California Sur, where seas are in the 5-7
ft range. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft,
prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Elsewhere in the Gulf 
of California, gentle to moderate winds prevail, with seas in the
2-3 ft range. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will diminish in the 
Tehuantepec region tonight. A cold front extends across the far 
northern Gulf of California across Baja California Norte and over
the waters off Baja California Norte. The cold front will spread
across the remainder of the Baja California peninsula through
Fri while weakening. Large NW swell ushered in from the front
will spread across the waters off the Baja California peninsula
into this weekend, and continuing across the waters off SW Mexico
through the weekend. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is expected early next week, with gale force winds
possible starting Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are found over the Gulf of Papagayo, where
seas are in the 6-7 ft range. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of
5-6 ft are found in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds
extends downstream of Papagayo and Panama. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds in the 
Papagayo region are expected to continue through Fri morning. 
Fresh to locally strong N winds in the Gulf of Panama, including 
the Azuero Peninsula, will persist through tonight. Gentle 
breezes and moderate S to SW swell will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event. 

A cold front extends from Baja California Norte SW to near 
21N140W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted on either side 
of the front N of 26N, and westward to near 130W. The front has
ushered in a large set of NW swell. Aside from the area of 12 ft
seas discussed above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters NW
of a line from Baja California Norte to near 15N140W. High
pressure of 1020 mb is centered N of the front near 25N138W. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 15N and W of 130W. Gentle to
moderate winds are found elsewhere across the waters, with seas
in the 5-7 ft. 

For the forecast, seas greater than 8 ft will spread SE through
the first half of the weekend, covering much of the waters N of
05N and W of 110W by Sat night before subsiding. Low pressure
will approach the NW waters Fri, with associated cold front
approaching the NW waters Fri evening. Fresh to strong winds are
expected ahead and behind the front. The front will usher in
another set of large NW swell, as discussed in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section above. The area low pressure will strengthen
while moving eastward near 31N. This could bring gale force 
winds into the forecast waters by late Sat afternoon or Sat 
evening.

$$
AL