000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012208
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Feb 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large NW swell with a period of 10 to 17 seconds is moving 
across the E Pacific open waters N of 23N and W of 118W 
supporting 12 to 18 ft seas behind a cold front moving across the
Baja California Peninsula. The swell along with the large seas 
will continue to spread S and E through Sat, reaching 15N and Los
Cabos, Mexico before starting to gradually subside. However, a 
new cold front will enter the NW waters about the same time, thus
bringing a new set of NW swell with large seas to 17 ft 
affecting the subtropical waters the remainder of the weekend. 
Strong to near gale force winds will accompany this second front.
Brief gales are also possible with this front Sat night into Sun
when the front is forecast to be W of the Baja California 
Peninsula near 30N127W to 21N140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
06N77W to 06N85W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05N93W to 
05N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 03N to 07N E of 82W, and from 05N to 16N between 96W and 
109W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 
 
A 1018 mb high pressure is centered W of Baja California Sur 
near 20N118W while fresh to strong SW winds associated with an 
approaching cold front continue to affect the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia. Rough seas over this 
region of Baja Norte are in the 8-13 ft range in large NW swell.
Between Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro, winds are moderate to
fresh from the W with 5-7 ft seas. From Cabo San Lazaro to Los 
Cabos, Mexico winds are mainly light to gentle under the 
influence of the high pressure to the W and seas are 5-6 ft. A 
prefrontal surface trough is supporting fresh to strong SW winds 
in the northern Gulf of California with seas in the 5-7 ft 
range. Elsewhere along the Gulf of California, winds are gentle
to moderate from the SSE with seas to 3 ft. In the Tehuantepec 
region, winds are fresh to strong with 5-6 ft seas. Otherwise, 
in the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters winds are light to 
gentle with seas ranging 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will 
diminish in the Tehuantepec region tonight. A cold front will 
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by this evening and continue
to affect this region with fresh to strong winds and rough seas.
A NW swell event will follow the front, building seas to 14 ft 
across most of the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Fri afternoon. 
This swell event will continue to propagate southward reaching 
the Revillagigedo and Clarion Islands by Fri night. The cold 
front will also continue to affect the Gulf of California with 
fresh to strong winds and building seas to 8 ft through Fri 
night. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
possible by Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are 
ongoing in the Gulf of Panama downwind to about 02N with seas to 
8 ft. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds are noted, with 
seas of 5 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds in the Papagayo
region are expected to continue through Fri morning, with seas 
to 8 FT. Fresh to locally strong N winds in the Gulf of Panama, 
including also the Azuero Peninsula are forecast to persist 
through tonight. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will 
persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for information on an ongoing
large swell event. 

A cold front is moving across the north waters and extends from 
30N118W to 24N126W to 20N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted 
on either side of the front N of 24N to 131W. A significant 
swell event follows the front building seas to 18 ft. Seas 12 ft 
or greater are currently affecting the waters N of 24N and W of 
the front. South of the front, a 1018 mb high pressure located 
near 20N117W dominates the forecast area N of the ITCZ between 
110W and 124W. 

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward
across the northern forecast waters reaching the offshore waters
of Baja California Norte by this evening. The above mentioned 
swell event, with a leading edge period of 16 to 18 seconds, will
continue to spread southward covering most of the waters NW of a
line from 30N116W to 25N115W to 13N130W to 06N133W to 05N140W by
this evening. Looking ahead, a new cold front will be near 
30N140W by Fri evening, then begin to move across the NW corner 
of the forecast area on Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected ahead and behind the front. A new swell event is 
expected in the wake of the front. The low pressure associated 
with this front will strenghten while moving eastward near 31N. 
This could bring gale force winds into the forecast waters by 
late Sat afternoon or Sat evening.

$$
Ramos