000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011531
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Feb 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
07N77W to 06N86W to 05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 
05N120W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 01N to 05N E of 81W, and from 04N to 14N between 95W and 
109W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 
 
A 1017 mb high pressure is centered W of Baja California Sur near
21N117W while fresh to strong SW winds associated with an
approaching cold front are already affecting the Baja California
Norte offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia. Rough seas entering
this region are in the 8-11 ft range in NW swell. S of Punta
Eugenia to Los Cabos, Mexico winds are mainly light to gentle under
the influence of the high pressure to the W and seas are 5-6 ft.
A prefrontal surface trough is supporting fresh to strong SW
winds in the northern Gulf of California with seas in the 3-6 ft
range. Elsewhere along the Gulf of California, winds are light to
gentle with seas to 3 ft. Gale conditions have ended in the
Tehuantepec region, however fresh to strong N winds and 5-8 ft
seas are still ongoing. Otherwise, in the remainder SW Mexican 
offshore waters winds are light to gentle with seas ranging 4 to 
6 ft in NW swell. 

For the forecast, minimal gale force winds and rough seas will
persist in the Tehuantepec region through this morning, then 
conditions will steadily improve by Thu afternoon. A cold front 
will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by this afternoon. 
Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front. A NW 
swell event will follow the front, building seas to 10 to 14 ft 
across most of the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Fri afternoon. 
This swell event will continue to propagate southward reaching 
the Revillagigedo and Clarion Islands by Fri night. The cold 
front will also affect the northern Gulf of California bringing 
fresh to strong winds and building seas to 8 ft. The next gap
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible by Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Seas to 8 ft associated with 
with the gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and 
Papagayo, are still noted across the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Fresh to locally strong winds are 
observed in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 5N with seas
of 8 to 9 ft W of 80W based on altimeter data. Elsewhere mainly 
light to gentle winds are noted, with seas of 5 to 7 ft primarily
in SW swell.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds in the Papagayo
region are expected to continue through Fri morning, with seas 
to 8 FT. Fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Panama, including
also the Azuero Peninsula are forecast to persist through tonight.
Seas will subside below 8 ft across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador by this morning. Gentle breezes and 
moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving across the north waters and extends from 
30N122W to 25N130W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted 
on either side of the front. A significant swell event follows 
the front building seas to 17 or 18 ft. Seas 12 ft or greater are
currently affecting the waters N of 25N and W of the front. 
Ahead of the front, a 1020 mb high pressure located near 21N118W 
dominates the forecast area N of the ITCZ and W of 105W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic flow is under the influence of the high 
pressure. A surface trough is analyzed from 12N104W to 06N108W. 
Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the trough and
mainly from 05N to 12N between 102W and 108W. Scattered moderate
convection is associated with the trough. 

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward
across the northern forecast waters reaching the offshore waters
of Baja California Norte by this afternoon. The above mentioned 
swell event, with a leading edge period of 16 to 18 seconds, will
continue to spread southward covering most of the waters NW of a
line from 30N116W to 25N115W to 13N130W to 06N133W to 05N140W by
this evening. Looking ahead, a new cold front will be near 
30N140W by Fri evening, then begin to move across the NW corner 
of the forecast area on Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected ahead and behind the front. A new swell event is 
expected in the wake of the front. The low pressure associated 
with this front will strenghten while moving eastward near 31N. 
This could bring gale force winds into the forecast waters by 
late Sat afternoon or Sat evening.

$$
Ramos