000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010921
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer pass
confirmed the presence of minimal gale-force N winds over the  
Gulf of Tehuantepec with fresh to strong N to NE winds extending
downstream to near 14N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within these wind
speeds based on altimeter data. Seas generated by this gap event
continue to propagate southward covering the waters from 10N to 
14N between 94W and 96W. Winds are forecast to diminish below 
gale force by this morning, with the strong winds diminishing by
this afternoon with seas subsiding below 8 ft. Winds of 20 kt 
and seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected by tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
06N77W to 06N97W. The ITCZ continues from 06N97W to 05N120W to 
beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N 
to 12N between 100W and 110W. Strong SW winds aloft continue to 
enhance this convective activity.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning at 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
 
A 1020 mb high pressure centered near 21N118W extends a ridge 
across the Baja California offshore waters generating light to 
gentle winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle 
winds are also noted in the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 
3 ft, highest near the entrance to the Gulf. In the SW Mexican 
offshore waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are 
light to gentle with seas ranging 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW 
swell. 

For the forecast, minimal gale force winds and rough seas will
persist in the Tehuantepec region through this morning, then 
conditions will steadily improve by Thu afternoon. A cold front 
will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by this afternoon. 
Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front. A NW 
swell event will follow the front, building seas to 10 to 14 ft 
across most of the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Fri afternoon. 
This swell event will continue to propagate southward reaching 
the Revillagigedo and Clarion Islands by Fri night. The cold 
front will also affect the northern Gulf of California bringing 
fresh to strong winds and building seas to 8 ft. The next gap
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible by Mon night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Seas to 8 ft associated with 
with the gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and 
Papagayo, are still noted across the outer offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Fresh to locally strong winds are 
observed in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 5N with seas
of 8 to 9 ft W of 80W based on altimeter data. Elsewhere mainly 
light to gentle winds are noted, with seas of 5 to 7 ft primarily
in SW swell.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds in the Papagayo
region are expected to continue through Fri morning, with seas 
to 8 FT. Fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Panama, including
also the Azuero Peninsula are forecast to persist through tonight.
Seas will subside below 8 ft across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador by this morning. Gentle breezes and 
moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving across the north waters and extends from 
30N122W to 25N130W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted 
on either side of the front. A significant swell event follows 
the front building seas to 17 or 18 ft. Seas 12 ft or greater are
currently affecting the waters N of 25N and W of the front. 
Ahead of the front, a 1020 mb high pressure located near 21N118W 
dominates the forecast area N of the ITCZ and W of 105W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic flow is under the influence of the high 
pressure. A surface trough is analyzed from 12N104W to 06N108W. 
Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the trough and
mainly from 05N to 12N between 102W and 108W. Scattered moderate
convection is associated with the trough. 

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward
across the northern forecast waters reaching the offshore waters
of Baja California Norte by this afternoon. The above mentioned 
swell event, with a leading edge period of 16 to 18 seconds, will
continue to spread southward covering most of the waters NW of a
line from 30N116W to 25N115W to 13N130W to 06N133W to 05N140W by
this evening. Looking ahead, a new cold front will be near 
30N140W by Fri evening, then begin to move across the NW corner 
of the forecast area on Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are 
expected ahead and behind the front. A new swell event is 
expected in the wake of the front. The low pressure associated 
with this front will strenghten while moving eastward near 31N. 
This could bring gale force winds into the forecast waters by 
late Sat afternoon or Sat evening.

$$
GR