000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010344
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale-force winds are
still noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 8 to 10 ft. 
Seas of 8 to 10 ft generated by this gap event now cover the 
waters from 10N to 14N between 94W and 96W. Winds are forecast to
diminish below gale force by early Thu morning, with the strong 
winds diminishing by Thu afternoon. Seas will subside below 8 ft 
by Thu evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
07N78W to 06N87W. The ITCZ continues from 06N87W to 05N110W to 
beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N 
to 07N between 93W and 95W, and from 05N to 11N between 102W and 
110W. Strong SW winds aloft continue to enhance this convective
activity.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning at 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
 
A 1020 mb high pressure centered near 21N121W extends a ridge
across the Baja California offshore waters generating light to 
gentle winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle
winds are also noted in the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to
3 ft, highest near the entrance to the Gulf. In the SW Mexican 
offshore waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are 
light to gentle with seas ranging 4 to 6 ft in mixed Nw and SW
swell. 

For the forecast, minimal gale force winds and rough seas will
persist in the Tehuantepec region through early Thu morning,  
then conditions will steadily improve by Thu afternoon. A cold 
front will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Thu afternoon.
Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front. A NW 
swell event will follow the front, building seas to 10 to 14 ft
across most of the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Fri afternoon.
This swell event will continue to propagate southward reaching
the Revillagigedo Islands by Fri night. The cold front will also
affect the northern Gulf of California bringing fresh to strong 
winds and seas building to 8 ft. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Seas of 8 ft are still noted 
across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due
to seas generating in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. 
Fresh to locally strong winds are observed in the Gulf of Panama 
and downwind to about 5N or 6N. Elsewhere mainly light to gentle 
winds are noted with seas of 5 to 7 ft primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds in the Papagayo
region are expected to continue through Fri morning, with seas 
subsiding below 8 ft by Thu night. Fresh to strong N winds in
the Gulf of Panama, including also the Azuero Peninsula are 
forecast to persist through Thu night. Seas will subside below 8
ft across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Thu
morning. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist 
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving across the NW waters and extends from
30N126W to 23N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on both side
of the front. Large and long period NW swell follows the front
building seas to 17 or 18 ft. Seas 12 ft or greater are 
currently affecting the waters N of 25N and W of the front. Ahead
of the front, a 1020 mb high pressure located near 21N121W 
dominates the forecast area N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 15N and W of 107W. Light 
to gentle anticyclonic flow is under the influence of the high 
pressure. 

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward
across the northern forecast waters reaching the offshore waters
of Baja California Norte by Thu afternoon. The above mentioned 
swell event, with a leading edge period of 16 to 18 seconds, will
continue to spread southward covering most of the waters NW of a
line from 30N116W to 20N125W to 10N140W by Thu evening, and NW 
of a line from 30N116W to 22N110.5W to 11N120W to 05N140W by Fri 
evening. A new cold front will be near 30N140W by Fri evening. 
Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind of the 
front.


$$ 
GR