000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jan 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds are ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 8 to 12 ft. The swell generated by these winds extend as far south as 04S and as far west as 125W with seas ranging 8 to 10 ft. The gale force winds will end by early Thu morning, with strong winds diminishing by Thu afternoon. Seas will subside below 8 ft by Thu evening. Marine interests in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region need to monitor this situation closely, and take necessary action to protect life and properties. Operators of smaller vessels should avoid both areas if possible. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information on these two Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 04N77W to 01N84W to 06N89W. The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 05N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 16N between 106W and 115W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N between 94W and 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning at the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1017 mb high pressure centered near 23N121W is extending a ridge across the Baja California offshore waters. This ridge is providing light to gentle winds and seas to 5 ft in NW swell along the Baja California offshore waters and winds of the same magnitude along the Gulf of California. Seas in the gulf are 1 to 3 ft. In the SW Mexican offshore waters outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the region of Oaxaca, winds are light to gentle with seas ranging 4 to 6 ft within mixed swell. For the forecast, gale force winds and very rough seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Thu morning, then conditions will steadily improve by Thu afternoon. Meanwhile, a ridge will continue to extend across the Baja California offshore waters through today. A cold front will move across the Baja California offshore waters on Thu through Sat. This front will bring fresh to strong winds and very rough seas. Winds are also expected to increase to fresh to strong across most of the Gulf of California Thu through Fri. Seas will begin to slightly subside by Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale-force winds are prevailing in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 10 ft. The swell from this event is combining with the large swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending much farther south and west outside the Papagayo region. Fresh to strong N winds are noted across the Gulf of Panama N of 03N with seas of 5 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas 5 to 9 ft are occurring in the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere offshore Costa Rica and western Panama, with gentle to moderate S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas in these regions range 5 to 8 ft in primarily in S swell. For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds in the Papagayo region are expected to continue through Fri morning, with seas subsiding below 8 ft by Thu night. The strong N to NE winds along with moderate to rough seas will persist in the Gulf of Panama through late tonight, with fresh to locally strong winds continuing through Fri morning. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region combined with seas generated in the Papagayo area will continue to cause rough seas at the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm through Thu. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N137W to 27N140W. Scatterometer data depicted strong to near gale-force SW winds ahead of the front, N of 25N and W of 127W. Fresh to strong W winds are behind the front. Large swell associated with this front is also propagating into the waters, with 12 to 16 ft seas noted N of 25N and W of 130W. Meanwhile, a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N121W is extending southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 17N and W of 105W. Scatterometer data depicted fresh to locally strong winds from 10N to 18N between 106W and 115W near an area of scattered moderate convection. From 17N to 30N and E of 130W, winds are light to gentle under the influence of the high pressure. Seas range 5 to 9 ft in this region. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 17N between 115W and 130W, with seas around 6 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5 to 9 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong with locally near-gale S to SW winds and seas up to 16 ft will persist over the NW corner of the forecast region today as a cold front moves eastward across these waters through Fri. This front will reach from 30N127W to 23N140W by this evening. Winds will continue to be fresh to strong from today into Thu night on both sides of the front, mainly N of 25N. Large, long period NW swell will cause 12 to 18 ft seas in the wake of the front, peaking on Thu. The 12 ft seas could reach as far south as 17N by Fri into Fri night. $$ Ramos