000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302238 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jan 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Near-gale to gale-force gap winds and will prevail through early Thursday morning. Seas under these winds are expected to peak between 12 and 14 ft. Meanwhile, large swell generated by these winds will continue to cause 8 to 11 ft seas well southwest of the Tehuantepec area, south to 03S and west to 112W through Thursday. Conditions will steadily improve late Thursday morning through afternoon. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Strong to near-gale gap winds at the Papagayo region will peak at gale-force this evening through mid Wedneseday morning, and then remain at fresh to near-gale force until Thursday noon. Seas will range from 8 to 11 ft during the entire period. Marine conditions will quickly improve Thursday afternoon. Marine interests in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Papagayo region need to monitor these situations closely, and take necessary action to protect life and properties. Operators of smaller vessels should avoid both areas if possible. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information on these two Gale Warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A near-equatorial trough curves northwestward from the coast near Colombia-Ecuador border to 01N82W to 06N91W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the trough from 01S to 03N between the Ecuador/southern Colombia coast and 83W, and from 04N to 08N between 87W and 91W. An ITCZ extends from 06N91W through 04N115W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered showers are noted up to 130 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 91W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 06N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning at the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An upper-level trough extending across the area is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms off the Baja California coast southward to Cabo Corrientes. Meanwhile, a 1022 mb high pressure near 26N125W and its related surface ridge are promoting gentle to moderate northerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate NW swell across the Baja California and Jalisco State offshore waters. Light to gentle winds with seas to 3 ft are noted across the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are light to moderate with 5 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, near-gale to gale-force winds and very rough seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Thu morning, then conditions will steadily improve afterward. Meanwhile, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through Wed. The ridge combined with lower pressure over Mexico will support fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and moderate seas today from the southern Gulf of California to offshore Cabo Corrientes. A cold front will move across the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Thu. This front will bring fresh to strong winds and very rough seas Thu through at least Fri night to the Baja California offshore waters. Winds are also expected to increase to fresh to strong across most of the Gulf of California Wed night through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section a Gale Warning at the Gulf of Papagayo. Strong to near-gale force NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 09N91W with seas 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to locally strong N winds are noted across the Gulf of Panama N of 04N with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Fresh NE winds and seas 8 to 11 ft are occurring in the waters offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gale-force winds at the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere offshore Costa Rica and western Panama, with gentle to moderate S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, strong to gale-force NE to E winds and rough seas will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Wed morning, then conditions will improve by Wed afternoon and night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds along with moderate to rough seas will persist in the Gulf of Panama through late Wed night. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region combined with seas generated in the Papagayo area will continue to cause rough seas at the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm through Wed. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 26N125W extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 17N and W of 105W. From 17N to 30N, winds are light to gentle under the influence of the high pressure. Seas range 5 to 8 ft. In the northwest corner of the area, fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted N of 25N and W of 130W, where seas have recently built to 10 to 15 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 20N between 115W and 130W, with seas around 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong with locally near-gale S to SW winds and seas up to 16 ft will persist over the NW corner of the forecast region through tonight as a cold front moves eastward across these waters. This front will reach from 30N131W to 24N140W by Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to be fresh to strong from Wednesday and Wednesday night on both sides of the front, mainly N of 25N. Large, long period NW swell will cause 12 to 17 ft seas in the wake of the front. The 12 ft seas could reach as far south as 20N by Fri. $$ Chan