000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300956 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jan 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force N to NE winds of 35 to 40 kt and seas up to 16 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds are forecast to prevail through Wed night. Meanwhile, large seas generated from this gap wind event will continue spreading well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 110W by Tue. Conditions will begin to improve by Thu. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid the hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure is building across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean. This is currently supporting strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to beyond 91W. Winds will increase to gale force Tue evening, then diminish below gale force by Wed morning. However, the strong to near-gale force winds should continue through at least Wed night. Rough seas will peak near 11 ft with the strongest winds today through Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on these two events. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 06N86W. The ITCZ extends from 06N86W to 02N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 87W and 95W and from 04N to 06N between 130W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the gale warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An upper-level trough extending across the area is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms off the Baja California coast southward to Cabo Corrientes. Meanwhile, a 1021 mb high pressure NW of the area, centered near 28N126W, extends across the Baja California waters. Light to gentle winds prevail over most of the region with gentle to moderate winds noted in Baja California Sur. Seas range 5 to 6 ft within NW swell. Scatterometer overnight depicted fresh to locally strong winds with seas up to 4 to 6 ft in the southern Gulf of California and off the Cabo Corrientes coast. Light to gentle winds with seas to 3 ft are noted across the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are light to moderate with 5 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through Wed. The ridge combined with lower pressure over Mexico will support fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and seas to 7 ft today from the southern Gulf of California to offshore Cabo Corrientes. Gale- force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Wed night. Seas will be very rough across this region through Tue, and will drop below 8 ft by Thu. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the waters N of Punta Eugenia late Wed night through Thu. This front will bring fresh to locally strong winds and very rough seas Thu through at least Fri night to the Baja California offshore waters. Winds are also expected to increase to fresh to strong speeds across most of the Gulf of California Thu through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on the gale warning in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Strong to near-gale force NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 08N91W with seas 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong N winds are noted across the Gulf of Panama N of 04N with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas 8 to 13 ft are occurring in the waters offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gale-force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere offshore Costa Rica and western Panama, with gentle to moderate S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas range 4 to 6 ft in primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through late Wed night, with gale force winds expected on Tue night. Seas will peak near 11 ft in this area. Persistent fresh to strong N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night through late Wed night under the influence of the same high pressure, with seas 8 to 9 ft. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region combined with seas generated in the Papagayo area will continue to affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm through Wed. Seas are expected to reach 10 to 15 ft through tonight. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 33N123W extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 17N and W of 105W. From 17N to 30N, winds are light to gentle under the influence of the high pressure. Seas range 6 to 9 ft. A small area of fresh to strong winds are noted near the ITCZ along 113W. In the NW corner of the area, fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted N of 27N and W of 134W, where seas have recently built to 8 to 13 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 20N between 115W and 130W, with seas around 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas to 16 ft will persist over the NW corner of the forecast region through Tue night ahead of a frontal system. A cold front will enter the forecast waters on Tue and continue moving eastward across the waters through the rest of the week, reaching from 30N123W to 21N140W by early Thu. Winds will continue to be fresh to strong from Tue through Wed night on both sides of the front, mainly N of 25N. Winds could be near gale force on Tue ahead of the front. Large and long period NW swell, with seas in the 12 to 17 ft range, is expected in the wake of the front. The 12 ft seas could reach as far south as 21N Thu night into Fri. The area of fresh to strong winds from the ITCZ around 113W should diminish to moderate to fresh by Tue. Large NE swell due to gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will propagate as far west as 110W and as far south as the Equator by Tue afternoon, spreading seas of 8 to 11 ft across that area. $$ AKR