000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force N to NE winds of 35 to 40 kt and seas up to 19 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds are forecast to prevail through Wed night. Meanwhile, large seas generated from this gap wind event will continue spreading well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 110W by Tue. Conditions will begin to improve by Thu. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid the hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure is building across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean. This is currently supporting strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to beyond 91W. Winds should increase to gale force Tue evening, then diminish below gale force by Wed morning. However, the strong to near-gale force winds should continue through at least Wed night. Rough seas will peak near 11 ft with the strongest winds today through Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on these two events. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 03N82W to 04N91W. The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 04N116W to 06.5N127W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 105W and 127W. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring from the ITCZ to 12N between the coast of Central America and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A surface trough extends from 20N105W to 22N113W. An upper-level trough in the area is enhancing scattered moderate convection from offshore western Guerrero to offshore Baja California Sur. A 1021 mb surface high pressure centered near 28N123W extends ridging across the remainder of the waters off Baja California, leading to light to gentle winds W of Baja California. Seas are 5 to 6 ft W of Baja California. Recent ASCAT satellite data shows moderate NW to NNW winds across the Gulf of California, where seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 4 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are light to moderate with 5 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through Wed. The ridge combined with lower pressure over Mexico will support fresh NW to N winds and seas to 7 ft through Tue from the southern Gulf of California to offshore Cabo Corrientes. Gale- force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Wed night. Seas will be very rough across this region through Tue, and will drop below 8 ft by Thu. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the waters N of Punta Eugenia late Wed night through Thu. This front will bring fresh to strong winds and very rough seas Thu through at least Fri night to the waters west of Baja California. Winds are also expected to increase to fresh to strong speeds across most of the Gulf of California Thu through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see the Special Features section above for more information. Strong to near-gale force NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 08N91W, with seas 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong N winds are noted across the Gulf of Panama N of 04N, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas 10 to 15 ft are occurring in the waters offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gale-force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere offshore Costa Rica and western Panama, with gentle to moderate S winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through late Wed night, with gale force winds expected on Tue night. Seas will peak near 11 ft in this area. Persistent fresh to strong N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night through late Wed night under the influence of the same high pressure, with seas 8 to 9 ft. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region combined with seas generated in the Papagayo area will continue to affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm through Wed, with seas 10 to 15 ft through tonight. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a 1021 mb high pressure centered near 28N123W extends a ridge southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 12N, with moderate trades from 12N to 17N. Seas range from 8 to 10 ft in the fresh to strong wind area, primarily in merging NW swell and NE to E wind waves. In the NW corner of the area, fresh to strong S to SW winds are noted N of 26N and W of 133W, where seas have recently built to 8 to 14 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 20N between 115W and 130W, with seas around 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 9 to 14 ft will persist over the NW corner of the forecast region through Tue night ahead of a frontal system. A cold front will enter the forecast waters on Tue and continue moving eastward across the waters through the rest of the week, reaching from 30N123W to 21N140W by early Thu. Winds will continue to be fresh to strong from Tue through Wed night on both sides of the front, mainly N of 25N. Winds could be near gale force on Tue ahead of the front. Large and long period NW swell, with seas in the 12 to 17 ft range, is expected in the wake of the front. The 12 ft seas could reach as far south as 21N Thu night into Fri. The area of fresh to strong NE to ENE winds from the ITCZ to 12N should diminish to moderate to fresh by mid-week. Large NE swell due to gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will propagate as far west as 110W and as far south as the Equator by Tue afternoon, spreading seas of 8 to 11 ft across that area. $$ Hagen