000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291608 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jan 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force N to NE winds of 35 to 45 kt and seas up to 21 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds are forecast to prevail through Wed night. Meanwhile, large seas generated from this gap wind event will continue spreading well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 110W by Tue. Conditions will begin to improve by Thu. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure is building across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean. This is currently supporting strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to beyond 90W. Winds should increase to gale force Tue evening, then diminish below gale force by Wed morning. However, the strong to near-gale force winds should continue through at least Wed night. Rough seas will peak near 11 ft with the strongest winds today through Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on these two events. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 04N92W. The ITCZ extends from 04N92W to 07.5N118W to 06N134W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 106W and 126W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring within this activity from 06N to 14N between 110W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is also farther north from 12N to 22N between 104W and 117W, induced by an upper-level trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A surface ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure centered near 27N124W southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds across the Baja California offshore waters, as depicted by the latest scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of California, moderate N to NW winds prevail with seas to 3 ft. Outside of the Tehuantepec region, gentle breezes are observed elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through at least mid-week. In the southern Gulf of California, the ridge combined with lower pressure over Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft through Tue. Fresh N winds and seas to 7 ft will prevail offshore Cabo Corrientes tonight through Tue. Gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Wed night. Seas will be very rough across this region through Tue, and will drop below 8 ft by Thu. Meanwhile, a cold front will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Wed night into Thu. This front will bring fresh to strong winds and very rough seas Thu through at least Fri to the waters west of Baja California. Winds are also expected to increase to fresh to strong speeds across most of the Gulf of California Thu through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see the Special Features section above for more information. Strong to near-gale force NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 08N91W, with seas to 11 ft. Strong N winds are noted across the Gulf of Panama N of 04N, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas 10 to 15 ft are occurring in the waters offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gale-force Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere offshore Costa Rica, Ecuador and southern Colombia, with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through late Wed night, with gale force winds expected on Tue night. Seas will peak near 11 ft in this area. Persistent fresh to strong N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night through late Wed night under the influence of the same high pressure, with seas to 8 ft. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region combined with seas generated in the Papagayo area will continue to affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm through Wed, with seas 10 to 15 ft through tonight. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a 1020 mb high pressure centered near 27N124W extends a ridge southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 17N and west of 105W. Seas range 6 to 8 ft in this area, primarily in merging NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Meanwhile, an area of fresh to strong winds is in the vicinity of the ITCZ with seas 8 to 9 ft from 06N to 13N between 110W and 115W. This area is also seeing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 20N and W of 110W, with seas ranging 6 to 7 ft. In the NW corner of the forecast region, fresh to strong southerly winds are noted ahead of a frontal boundary located W of the forecast area, mostly N of 26N and W of 135W. Seas are 8 to 13 ft with NW swell in this region. Gentle to moderate breezes and 6-8 ft combined seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds, and seas of 9 to 13 ft will persist over the NW corner of the forecast region through tonight ahead of a frontal system. A cold front will enter the forecast waters on Tue and continue moving eastward across the waters through the rest of the week. Winds will continue to be fresh to strong from Tue through Thu. Winds could be near gale force on Tue ahead of the front. Large and long period NW swell, with seas in the 12 to 17 ft range, is expected in the wake of the front. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds is expected N of the ITCZ roughly between 110W and 120W through Tue night as the base of an upper-level trough is forecast to persist in this region. Seas could build to 8 to 9 ft near the higher winds. $$ Hagen