000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290344 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jan 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm force winds are likely prevailing across the Gulf of Tehunatepec, with gale force winds occurring downwind to about 13N. A building ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico supports this strong gap wind event. Seas are forecast to build to 12-21 ft with this event. Large seas generated from this gap wind event will also spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 105W by tonight into Mon. Storm force winds will end early mon morning, with gale force winds prevailing through Wed. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur most often in January. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure building across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean, in the wake of a cold front within the Gulf of Mexico, will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to beyond 90W. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected, especially at night through at least Wed night. Rough seas will build in this area to 8-12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 04N92W. The ITCZ extends from 04N92W to 06N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 104W and 122W. This convective activity in near the base of an upper-level trough. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are noted per scatterometer data in this area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Storm Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A surface ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure centered near 35N127W southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds across the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate N to NW winds are noted with seas to 3 ft. Outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle breezes are observed elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through at least mid-week. In the southern Gulf of California, the ridge combined with lower pressure over Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft on Mon through Tue. Storm- force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will drop to gale force early Mon morning. Gale conditions are then expected to persist through Wed. Seas will be very rough to high across this region through Tue, and will drop below 8 ft by Thu. Meanwhile, a cold front will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Thu night into Fri, bringing an increase in winds and seas across the Baja California offshore waters. Winds are also expected to increase to fresh to strong speeds across most of the Gulf Thu night through Fri night in the Gulf of California ahead of the front. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see the Special Features section above for more information. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 09N90W. Winds are likely gusting to gale force in this area. Seas range 7 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong N winds are noted across the Gulf of Panama N of 06N, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, as high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean, fresh to strong NE to E winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through at least Wed. Rough seas will build in this area to 8 to 12 ft. Persistent fresh to strong speeds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night through Wed night under the influence of the same high pressure. Seas are forecast to build to 8 ft. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region combined with seas generated in the Papagayo area will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm this evening through Wed. Seas are expected to build to 12 to 14 ft tonight through Mon evening. Otherwise, gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 34N126W, and extends a broad ridge southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 157 and west of 105W. Seas range 6 to 8 ft in this area, primarily in merging NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 20N and W of 110W, with seas ranging 6 to 8 ft. In the NW corner of the forecast region, fresh to strong southerly winds are noted ahead of a frontal boundary located W of the forecast area, mostly N of 27N and W of 136W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with NW swell in this region. Gentle to moderate breezes and 6-7 ft combined seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds, and seas of 9 to 13 ft will persist over the NW corner of the forecast region through Tue, ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the area Tue night through the rest of the week. Large and long period NW swell, with seas in the 12 to 17 ft range, is expected in the wake of the front. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds is expected N of the ITCZ roughly between 110W and 120W over the next couple of days as the base of an upper-level trough is forecast to persist in this region. Seas could build to 8 to 9 ft near the higher winds. $$ AReinhart