000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282140
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A recent scatterometer pass 
reveals the presence of gale force winds, in the 35-40 kt range, 
across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and downwind to about 13N. A 
building ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico, supports this strong gap wind event. 
Northerly winds will continue to surge into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, reaching minimal storm force tonight. Seas are 
forecast to build to 12-20 ft with this event. Large seas 
generated from this gap wind event will spread well away from the
Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west
as 105W by tonight into Mon. Gale force winds will then prevail 
from Mon through Wed. Marine interests transiting across or in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun evening into Mon should be aware of 
this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to 
avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. 

Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows
that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December.
Storm-force events occur most often in January. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure building across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean, in the wake of a 
cold front, will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to beyond 90W. Frequent gusts to 
gale force are expected, especially at night through at least Tue
night. Rough seas will build in this area to 8-12 ft with the 
strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 
05N77W to 04N91W. The ITCZ continues from 04N91W to 06N110W to 
07N128W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 103W and 118W. This
convective activity in near the base of an upper-level trough.
Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are noted per scatterometer
data in this area. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A Storm Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Please, see the Special Features section above for more details.

A surface ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure centered near
35N125W southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. This pattern
is supporting light to gentle winds across the Baja California 
offshore waters, with the exception of moderate NE winds in the
vicinity of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. In 
the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh NW winds are noted N of
30N and W of 114W. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are observed
across the remainder of Gulf with seas generally in the 2 to 4 
ft range. Outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle 
breezes are observed elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters with
seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in NW swell. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California through at
least mid-week. A cold front will reach the waters N of Punta
Eugenia by Thu night into Fri, bringing an increase in winds and
seas. In the southern Gulf of California, the ridge combined with
lower pressure over Mexico will support moderate to fresh NW
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft Mon through Tue. Winds are also
expected to increase to fresh to strong speeds across most of the
Gulf Thu night through Fri night ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. Gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
quickly build to minimal storm-force by this evening into Mon. 
Gale conditions are then expected to persist through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please, 
see the Special Features section above for more information.

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 08.5N90W, where seas
are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are across the Gulf of 
Panama N of 06N, with seas of 2 to 4 ft, with the exception of 4 
to 6 ft near the Azuero peninsula. Light to gentle breezes are 
noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds, with frequent
gusts to gale force, are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo 
through at least Tue, as high pressure builds across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. Rough seas will build in this 
area to 8-12 ft. Persistent moderate N winds in the Gulf of 
Panama will reach fresh to strong speeds tonight, and again Mon 
night under the influence of the same high pressure. Seas are 
forecast to build to 8 ft. Northwesterly swell associated with a 
significant gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region combined 
with seas generated in the Papagayo area will affect the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm this evening 
through Wed. Otherwise, gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell
will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a 1024 mb high pressure is centered 
near 35N125W, and extends a broad ridge southward into the 
tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area
of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 
about 15N and west of 105W. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in 
this area, primarily in merging NW swell and NE to E wind waves. 
Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 20N and W 
of 110W, except in the NW corner of the forecast region where 
fresh to strong southerly winds are noted ahead of a frontal 
boundary located W of the forecast area. Seas are 8 to 10 ft 
with NW swell in this region. Gentle to moderate breezes and 6-7 
ft combined seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds, and seas of 9 
to 13 ft will persist over the NW corner of the forecast region 
through Tue, ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the 
area Tue night into Wed. Large and long period NW swell, with
seas in the 12 to 16 ft range, is expected in the wake of the 
front. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds is expected N of
the ITCZ roughly between 110W and 120W over the next couple of 
days. The base of an upper-level trough is forecast to persist 
in this region.

$$
GR