000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281554 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Storm Warning: A gap wind event is ongoing across the Tehunatepec region, as a ridge continues to build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds of 30 to 45 kt are expected today, with seas building to 10-14 ft. Winds will increase to 50 kt tonight, with seas building to 12-20 ft. Gale force winds will then prevail from Mon through Wed. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun evening into Mon should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to 05N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 103W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section above for more details. A surface ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure centered near 32N125W southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the Baja California offshore waters, and moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf of California N of 30N. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are noted across the remainder of Gulf. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere S of 20N. Moderate seas of 5-6 ft are seen elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Inside the Gulf of California, seas are 4 to 6 ft N of 30N, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure just NW of the area will drift northward and weaken today, but a ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through at least Tue. In the Gulf of California, winds will diminish to moderate speeds this afternoon. Gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will quickly build to minimal storm-force by this evening into Mon. Gale conditions are then expected to persist through Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 89W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are across the Gulf of Panama N of 06N, with seas of are 2 to 4 ft, with the exception of 4 to 6 ft near the Azuero peninsula. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through the middle of the week, pulsing to minimal gale-force at night, as high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. Rough seas will build in this area to 8-12 ft each night. Persistent moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama will reach fresh to strong speeds each night, from tonight through Wed night, under the influence of the same high pressure. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gap wind event in Tehuantepec region will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm this evening through Wed. Otherwise, gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 32N125W, and extends a broad ridge southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 110W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in this area, primarily in merging NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 20N and W of 110W, except in the NW corner of the forecast region where fresh to locally strong southerly winds are noted ahead of a frontal boundary located W of the area. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with NW swell in this region. Gentle to moderate breezes and 6-7 ft combined seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the NW waters, and spread eastward to 130W before subsiding later today ahead of the next pulse of swell that will be associated with the next cold front that will enter the region early Mon through Tue. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere across the regional waters. Another cold front is forecast to reach the NW waters by Tue night, and extend from 30N130W to 24N140W by Wed afternoon. Large and long period NW swell is expected in the wake of the latter front. $$ GR