000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280837
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A gap wind event is ongoing 
across the Tehunatepec region, as a ridge continues to build 
across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in 
Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. 
Winds of 30 to 45 kt are expected today, with seas building to 
8-12 ft. Winds will increase to 50 kt tonight, with seas 
building to 12-19 ft. Gale force winds will then prevail from Mon
through Wed. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Sun evening into Mon should be aware of this 
upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid 
this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 04N87W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N87W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered showers are 
noted near the ITCZ between 100W and 123W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
see the Special Features section above for more details.

A surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure centered near
32N126W southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. This 
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the
Baja California offshore waters, and fresh to strong NW winds 
across the Gulf of California N of 28N. Moderate to fresh NW to 
N winds are noted across the remainder of the central and 
southern parts of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes
are noted elsewhere S of 20N. Moderate seas of 5-6 ft are noted 
elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Inside the Gulf of 
California, seas are generally 4-6 ft. 

For the forecast, the high pressure just NW of the area will 
drift northward and weaken today, but a ridge will remain in 
place across the offshore waters of Baja California through at 
least Tue. In the Gulf of California, winds will diminish to 
moderate speeds this afternoon. Gale force winds across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec will quickly build to minimal storm-force by this 
evening into Mon. Gale conditions are then expected to persist 
through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 89W, where seas are 5
to 7 ft. Moderate N winds continue across the Gulf of Panama N 
of 04N, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle breezes are 
noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week, 
pulsing to near gale-force at night, as high pressure builds 
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. Rough seas 
will build in this area to 8-11 ft each night. Persistent 
moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama will reach fresh to strong
speeds each night, from tonight through Wed night, under the 
influence of the same high pressure. Northwesterly swell 
associated with a significant gap wind event in Tehuantepec 
region will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador beyond 90 nm this evening through Wed. Otherwise, 
gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a 1023 mb high pressure is centered 
near 32N126W, and extends a broad ridge southward into the 
tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area
of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 
near 20N and west of 110W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in this 
area, primarily in merging NW swell and NE to E wind waves. 
Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 20N and W 
of 110W, except in the NW corner of the forecast region where 
moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted ahead of a frontal 
boundary located W of the area. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell 
in this region. Gentle to moderate breezes and 6-7 ft combined 
seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the
NW waters, and spread eastward to 130W before subsiding later
today ahead of the next pulse of swell that will be associated 
with the next cold front that will enter the region early Mon 
through Tue. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere across the 
regional waters. Another cold front is forecast to reach the NW 
waters by Tue night, and extend from 30N130W to 24N140W by Wed 
afternoon. Large and long period NW swell is expected in the wake
of the latter front. 

$$
ERA