000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region is expected this evening as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to suddenly increase to 35-40 kt, with seas building to 9-12 ft tonight into Sun. Then, winds will further increase to minimal storm force Sun night into Mon, with seas building to 12-18 ft. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 104W by Sun evening. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun evening into Mon should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below storm force by Mon morning but strong gale force winds of 40-45 kt will persist. Gale conditions are then forecast to continue through early Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N91W. The ITCZ continues from 06N91W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered showers are noted near the ITCZ between 102W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section above for more details. A surface ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure centered near 34N125W southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the Baja California offshore waters, and fresh to locally strong NW winds across the Gulf of California N of 25N. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are noted across the remainder of the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes are observed elsewhere S of 20N. NW swell dominates the regional waters, where seas are 6-7 ft off Baja California. Moderate seas of 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Inside the Gulf of California, seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the NW swell across the Baja California waters will continue to subside, falling below 7 ft tonight. The high pressure just NW of the area will drift northward and weaken through the weekend, but a ridge will remain in place across the offshore waters of Baja California through at least Tue. In the Gulf of California, winds will diminish to moderate speeds on Sun. Strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will quickly build to minimal storm-force by Sun evening into Mon. Gale conditions are then expected to persist through early Wed morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 89W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds continue across the Gulf of Panama N of 04N, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week, pulsing to near gale-force at night, as high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. Rough seas will build in this area to 8-11 ft each night. Persistent moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama will reach fresh to strong speeds each night, from Sun night through Wed night, under the influence of the same high pressure. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gap wind event in Tehuantepec region will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm Sun evening through early Wed morning. Otherwise, gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 34N125W, and extends a broad ridge southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 110W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in this area, primarily in merging NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the waters N of 20N and W of 110W, except in the NW corner of the forecast region where moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted ahead of a frontal boundary located W of the area. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in NW swell in this region. Gentle to moderate breezes and 6-7 ft combined seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to propagate across the NW waters, and spread eastward to 130W before subsiding Sun ahead of the next pulse of swell that will be associated with the next cold front that will enter the region early Mon through Tue. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere across the regional waters. Another cold front is forecast to reach the NW waters by Tue night, and extend from 30N130W to 24N140W by Wed afternoon. Large and long period NW swell is expected in the wake of the latter front. $$ ERA