159 AXPZ20 KNHC 271607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move slowly across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Strong high pressure will build behind the front late today and Sun, and across southern Mexico to induce a gale force northerly gap wind flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by this evening. Gale-force winds will further increase to near storm-force, and expand in areal coverage, extending offshore to near 12N or 13N Sun evening into Mon when seas will build to around 18 ft well offshore of the coast. Gale conditions are then forecast to persist through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N95W to 04N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N and E of 79W, and from 03N to 07N between 83W and 90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered near 32N125W southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds across the Baja California offshore waters, and moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across most of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes prevail elsewhere S of 21N. NW swell dominates the regional waters, where seas are 8-9 ft off Baja California Norte, and 7 to 8 ft across the remainder of the Baja waters. Moderate seas of 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Inside the Gulf of California seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the NW swell across the Baja waters will continue to subside today, falling below 8 ft by this evening. The high pressure just NW of the area will drift northward and weaken through the weekend. Winds will diminish to moderate speeds on Sun. Strong gap winds will blast across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this evening and quickly build to near storm-force by Sun evening into Mon. Gale conditions are then expected Sun through Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 89W, where seas remained 7 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds continue across the Gulf of Panama N of 04N, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW to W swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week, pulsing to near gale-force at night, as high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. Rough seas will build in this area to 8-9 ft each night. Persistent moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama will reach fresh to strong speeds each night, from Sun night through Wed night, under the influence of the same high pressure. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gale-force gap wind event in Tehuantepec will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm Sun evening through Wed. Otherwise, gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 33N125W, and extends a broad ridge southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 110W. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in this area, primarily in merging W-NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere N of 22N between the Baja Peninsula offshore waters and 120W. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over this region. N of 22N and between 120W and 130W, gentle E winds are ongoing. N of 25N and W of 133W, fresh to strong S to SW winds prevail ahead of a frontal boundary west of 134W. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range in this area. Gentle to moderate breezes and 6-7 ft combined seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, NW swell is forecast to continue moving into the NW waters, peaking near 14 ft in the vicinity of 30N140W tonight. This swell will spread eastward to 130W before subsiding Sun ahead of the next pulse of swell that will be associated with the next cold front that will enter the region early Mon through Tue. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere across the regional waters. $$ GR