923 AXPZ20 KNHC 270313 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jan 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move slowly across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Strong high pressure will build behind the front late Sat and Sun, and across southern Mexico to induce strong northerly gap wind flow across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sat evening, and increase to gale-force winds by early Sun morning. Gale-force winds will expand in areal coverage, extending offshore to near 13N Sun through Sun night, when seas will build to around 18 ft well offshore of the coast. Gale conditions will persist through Wed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N and E of 98W, and from 04N to 06N between 121W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered near 34N124W southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. This pattern is supporting moderate N to NE winds across the Baja California offshore waters, and moderate to fresh N-NW winds across central Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes prevail elsewhere S of 21N. W-NW swell dominates the regional waters, where seas are 8-9 ft off Baja California Norte, and 7 to 8 ft across the remainder of the Baja waters. Moderate seas of 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Inside the Gulf of California seas are 1 to 3 ft seas over the northern portions and 3 to 5 ft southern portions. For the forecast, the W-NW swell across the Baja waters will gradually subside through the weekend, falling below 8 ft by Sat afternoon. The high pressure just NW of the area will drift northward and weaken through the weekend. Fresh to strong NW winds will develop across the Gulf of California tonight and continue through Sat evening with seas building to 6-8 ft. Moderate NW winds are forecast along the Gulf the remainder forecast period. Strong gap winds will blast across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Sat evening and quickly build to gale-force by early Sun morning. Gale conditions are then expected Sun through Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh E-NE gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 90W, where seas remained 7 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds continue across the Gulf of Panama N of 04N, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW to W swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week, pulsing to near gale-force at night, as high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. Rough seas will build in this area to 8-9 ft each night. Persistent moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama will reach fresh to strong speeds each night, from Sun night through Wed night, under the influence of the same high pressure. Northwesterly swell associated with a significant gale-force gap wind event in Tehuantepec will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm Sun evening through Wed. Otherwise, gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of Baja California Norte near 34N124W, and extends a broad ridge southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 110W. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in this area, primarily in merging W-NW swell and NE to E wind waves. Moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere N of 22N between the Baja Peninsula offshore waters and 120W. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over this region. N of 22N and between 120W and 130W, gentle E winds are ongoing. N of 25N and W of 135W, fresh to strong S to SW winds prevail ahead of a cold front that extends from 30N138W to 28N140W. Seas are in the 8 to 13 ft range in this area. Gentle to moderate breezes and 6-7 ft combined seas persist elsewhere. For the forecast, new NW swell generated behind the cold front is forecast to continue moving into the NW waters, peaking near 14 ft in the vicinity of 30N140W tonight. This swell will spread eastward to 130W before subsiding Sun ahead of the next pulse of swell that will be associated with the next cold front that will enter the region early Mon through Tue. Seas will subside slightly elsewhere across the regional waters. $$ ERA