000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262155
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move slowly
across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Strong high pressure
will build behind the front late Sat and Sun, and across southern
Mexico to induce strong northerly gap wind flow across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec by Sat evening, and increase to gale-force winds
early Sun morning. Gale-force winds will further increase to near
45 kt, and expand in areal coverage, extending offshore to near
13N Sun through Sun night, when seas will build to around 18 ft 
well offshore of the coast. Gale conditions are then forecast to 
persist through Tue morning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08.5N82.5W to 
04N99W. The ITCZ continues from 04N104W to 04.5N122W to beyond 
05.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 03N to 06N E of 84W, and from 01.5N to 07.5N between 
84W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to
08N between 109W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A broad surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure 
centered near 32N125W southward into the tropical eastern 
Pacific. This pattern is supporting moderate N to NE winds 
across the Baja California near and offshore waters, and moderate
to locally fresh N-NW winds across central and southern portions
of Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes prevail 
elsewhere S of 21N. W-NW swell dominates the regional waters, 
where seas are 8-9 ft off Baja California Norte, and 7 to 8 ft 
across the remainder of the Baja waters. Moderate seas of 5-7 ft 
are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Inside the Gulf
of California seas are 1 to 3 ft seas over the northern portions
and 3 to 5 ft southern portions.

For the forecast, the W-NW swell across the Baja waters will
gradually subside through the weekend, falling below 8 ft by Sat
afternoon. The high pressure just NW of the area will drift
northward and weaken through the weekend. However, fresh to 
strong NW winds are forecast to develop across the Gulf of 
California this evening through Sat evening with seas building to
6-8 ft. Moderate NW winds are forecast along the Gulf the 
remainder forecast period. Strong gap winds will blast across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Sat evening and quickly build to
gale-force by early Sun morning. Gale conditions are then expected
Sun through at least Tue morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E-NE gap winds were depicted by midday satellite
scatterometer winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region, 
extending offshore to near 91W, where seas remained 7 to 8 ft. 
Moderate N winds continue across the Gulf of Panama N of 04N, 
where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Light to gentle breezes are noted 
elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW to W swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week, 
pulsing to just below gale-force at night, as high pressure
builds across teh eastern Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. Rough
seas will build in this area to 8-9 ft each night. Persistent moderate
N winds in the Gulf of Panama will reach fresh to strong speeds
each night, Sun night through Wed night, under the influence of
the same high pressure. Northwesterly swell associated with a
significant gale-force gap wind event in Tehuantepec will affect
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beyond 90 nm 
Sun evening through Wed. Otherwise, gentle breezes and moderate 
S to SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of Baja
California Norte near 32N125W, and extends a broad ridge 
southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh
trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of 112W. Seas
are in the 8-10 ft range in this area, primarily in merging W-NW
swell and NE to E wind waves. Moderate N to NE winds are 
elsewhere N of 22N between the Baja Peninsula offshore waters 
and 120W. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over this region. N of 22N
and between 120W and 130W, gentle E winds are ongoing. W of 
135W, fresh to strong S to SW winds prevail ahead of a cold front
that has reached 30N140W. Seas are in the 7 to 13 ft range in 
this area. Gentle to moderate breezes and 6-7 ft combined seas 
persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, new NW swell generated behind the approaching
cold front is forecast to continue moving into the NW waters,
peaking near 14 ft in the vicinity of 30N140W early tonight. 
This swell will spread eastward to 130W before subsiding Sun 
ahead of the next pulse of swell that will be associated with the
next cold front that will enter the region early Mon through Tue.
Seas will subside slightly elsewhere across the regional waters.

$$
Stripling