000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261559
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move slowly
across the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Strong high pressure
will build behind the front late Sat and Sun, and across southern
Mexico to induce strong northerly gap wind flow across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec by Sat evening, and increase to gale-force winds
by around sunrise Sun morning.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 05N88W to 03.5N104W. 
The ITCZ continues from 03.5N104W to 03.5N124W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N
to 06N E of 82W, and from 03N to 07.5N between 115W and 131W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to
06N between 84W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A broad surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure 
centered over central California near 37N119W southward into the 
tropical eastern Pacific. This pattern is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh N to NE winds across the Baja California near and
offshore waters and along the southern Gulf of California. 
Moderate NW winds continue over the Jalisco offshore waters. 
Light to gentle breezes prevail elsewhere. NW swell persist off 
Baja California Norte, with 7 to 8 ft combined seas. Moderate 
seas are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters primarily 
in NW swell, except 1 to 3 ft seas over the northern Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, NW swell with seas to 8 ft will persist off Baja
California through tonight. Fresh to strong NW winds are 
forecast across the Gulf of California this evening through Sat 
evening with seas building to 6-8 ft. Moderate NW winds are 
forecast along the Gulf the remainder forecast period. Looking 
ahead, strong to near-gale force gap winds will return to the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec starting on Sat night, with gale conditions 
expected Sun through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds and seas to 8 ft continue across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region and extend offshore to 90W. Moderate N 
winds continue across the Gulf of Panama with seas to 5 ft. 
Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas 
primarily in SW to W swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week, 
pulsing to just below gale-force at night. Rough seas will build in
this region to 8-9 ft. Moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will reach fresh to strong speeds Mon and Tue nights.
Northwesterly swell associated with a strong gap wind event in 
Tehuantepec will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador beyond 90 nm Sun night through Wed. Otherwise, gentle 
breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered over central California near 
37N119W southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to near 24N and west of 
110W. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in this area, primarily in NW
swell and NE to E wind waves. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
are elsewhere N of 25N between the Baja Peninsula offshore waters
and 120W. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range over this region. N of 
25N and between 120W and 130W, gentle E winds are ongoing. W of 
135W, fresh to strong S to SW winds prevail ahead of a cold 
front approaching 30N140W. Seas are in the 8 to 13 ft range in 
this area. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5-7 ft combined seas 
persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, new NW swell generated behind the approaching
cold front is forecast to continue moving into the NW waters. 
This swell will spread eastward to 130W before subsiding Sun 
ahead of the next pulse of swell that will be associated with 
the next cold front that will enter the region early next week. 
Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Stripling