000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 03N107W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N107W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 09N between 80W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure centered near
29N128W through the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is 
supporting moderate N to NE breezes off Baja California, and 
gentle to moderate NW breezes along the southern Gulf of 
California. Moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing over the 
Jalisco offshore waters. Light to gentle breezes are ongoing 
elsewhere. NW swell persist off Baja California Norte, with 7 to 
8 ft combined seas. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere over 
Mexican offshore waters primarily in NW swell, except 1 to 3 ft 
seas over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, NW swell with seas to 8 ft will persist off Baja
California through late Fri. Fresh to strong NW winds are 
forecast across the Gulf of California Fri evening through Sat 
evening with seas to 6 ft. Moderate NW winds are forecast along 
the Gulf the remainder forecast period. Looking ahead, strong to 
near-gale force gap winds will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec
starting on Sat night, with gale conditions possible Sun through
Tue night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds and seas to 7 ft continue across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate N winds are ongoing 
in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle breezes
are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW to W swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week, 
increasing to near gale-force at night. Rough seas in this 
region will range between 8-10 ft. Moderate N winds in the Gulf 
of Panama will reach fresh to strong speeds Mon and Tue nights. 
Northerly swell associated with a strong gap wind event in 
Tehuantepec will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador beyond 90 nm with rough seas Sun night into Tue evening.
Otherwise, gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will 
persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 29N128W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade 
winds north of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of 110W. Seas are 
in the 8-10 ft range in this area, primarily in NW swell and NE 
to E wind waves. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere N 
of 25N between the Baja Peninsula offshore waters and 120W. Seas 
are in the 7-8 ft range over this region. N of 25N and between 
120W and 135W, gentle to moderate E winds are ongoing. W of 135W,
fresh to strong SW winds prevail ahead of a low pressure system 
and associated cold front well W of the area. Seas are in the 8 
to 11 ft range in this area. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5-7 
ft combined seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a set of NW swell is forecast to continue
moving over the NW waters. This swell will spread eastward to 
130W before subsiding Sun ahead of a third set of swell that will
be associated with the next cold front that will enter the 
region early next week. Little change elsewhere.

$$
ERA