000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 05N86W to 04N93W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N93W to 03N113W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 
83W and 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure centered near
30N128W through the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is 
supporting moderate N to NE breezes off Baja California, and 
gentle to moderate NW breezes along the southern Gulf of 
California. Moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing over the
Jalisco offshore waters. Light to gentle breezes are ongoing
elsewhere. NW swell persist off Baja California Norte, with 7 to
8 ft combined seas. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere over 
Mexican offshore waters primarily in NW swell, except 1 to 3 ft 
seas over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, NW swell with seas to 8 ft will persist off Baja
California through late Fri. Fresh to strong NW winds are 
forecast across the Gulf of California Fri evening through Sat 
evening with seas to 6 ft. Moderate NW winds are forecast along 
the Gulf the remainder forecast period. Looking ahead, strong to 
near-gale force gap winds will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
late Sat, with gale conditions possible Sun through Tue night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds and seas to 7 ft continue across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate N winds are ongoing 
in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle breezes
are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 5 ft seas primarily in SW to W swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week, 
increasing to near gale-force at night. Rough seas in this 
region will range between 8-10 ft. Moderate N winds in the Gulf 
of Panama will reach fresh to strong speeds Mon and Tue nights. 
Northerly swell associated with a strong gap wind event in 
Tehuantepec will affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador beyond 90 nm with rough seas Sun night into Tue evening.
Otherwise, gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will 
persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 30N128W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade 
winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. Seas are in
the 8-10 ft range in this area, primarily in NW swell and NE to 
E wind waves. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere N of
20N between the Baja Peninsula offshore waters and 130W. Seas 
are in the 7-8 ft range over this region. N of 20N and W of 130W,
moderate to fresh E to SE winds are ongoing ahead of a low
pressure system and associated cold front W of the area. Fresh to
strong S winds are already entering the NW corner of the
subtropical waters where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range
already. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5-7 ft combined seas 
persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, NW swell over the waters north of 20N and west
of 120W will subside this evening, but will then be reinforced 
by a new set of NW swell forecast moving already over the NW 
waters. This new swell will spread eastward to 130W before 
subsiding Sun ahead of a third set of swell that will be 
associated with the next cold front that will enter the region 
early next week. Little change elsewhere.

$$
Ramos