000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240838
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 04N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N90W to 05N105W to 03N130W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 06N between 
97W and 99W, from 03N to 05N between 135W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface ridge is building north of 15N over the waters west of
Baja California, following a trough that is starting to dissipate
over Baja California Sur near Los Cabos. Recent scatterometer 
satellite data indicated mostly moderate NW to N breezes off Baja
California, with fresh winds funneling along the coast south of 
Punta Eugenia. An earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated 6 to
8 ft seas mostly likely in NW swell persisting off the coast 
north of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft 
combined seas are noted elsewhere except for light breezes and 
slight seas across the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the trough moving across Baja California Sur 
is now dissipating near Los Cabos. High pressure is building off 
Baja California in the wake of the trough. NW swell with seas to 
9 ft off over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will 
spread southward to just N of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight 
before subsiding Thu. Another set of large NW swell will move 
into the waters off Baja California Norte Fri, then gradually 
subside as it moves south of Punta Eugenia Sat. Looking ahead, 
strong to near- gale force gap winds may return to the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec late Sat, with gale conditions possible Sun and Sun 
night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong
gap winds continue across the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are likely 5
to 8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh N winds are likely 
across the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle breezes are noted 
elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas primarily in S to SE swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through into Fri, with associated 
rough seas off Nicaragua. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW 
swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 27N133W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade 
winds north of the ITCZ to near 10N and west of 130W. Seas are in
the 8 to 12 ft range in this area, in a mix of NW and SE swell 
and NE wind waves. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of the
ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range,
and this is being reinforced by another set of NW swell moving 
into the waters north of 15N and west of 130W, with seas in the 
8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft combined 
seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the set of NW swell over the waters north of 
15N and west of 130W will propagate to the southeast while slowly
subsiding through late today, but will then be reinforced 
through late week by a new set of NW swell. Little change 
elsewhere.

$$
Christensen