000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240253
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0250 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N90W to 05N105W to 03N130W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 
93W and 95W, from 03N to 05N between 132W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak cold front that was moving across the Gulf of California
and Baja California Sur has weakened to a trough. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds, and seas of 7 to 8 ft, are noted off Baja 
California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft 
are over the waters off Baja California Sur. Light to gentle 
winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft, are over the remainder of the open 
waters off Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3 ft or 
less, are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the trough extending across the central Gulf 
of California and Cabo San Lazaro dissipate by tonight. NW swell 
with seas to 9 ft off over the offshore waters of Baja California
Norte will spread southward to just N of Cabo San Lazaro through
mid week. Seas will diminish into late Thu. Another set of large
NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte 
Fri, then gradually subside as it moves south of Punta Eugenia 
Sat. Looking ahead, strong to near- gale force gap winds may 
return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sat, with gale conditions 
possible Sun and Sun night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E winds are noted at Liberia, Costa Rica. This is a good
indication that strong or possibly near-gale gap winds persist 
over the nearby Gulf of Papagayo. Combined seas to 8 ft are
likely farther downstream. Moderate winds, and seas of 5 to 6 
ft, are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will continue through late week, with associated
rough seas off Nicaragua. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW 
swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 27N134W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade 
winds north of the ITCZ to near 10N and west of 130W. Seas are in
the 8 to 12 ft range in this area, in a mix of NW and SE swell 
and NE wind waves. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of the
ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range,
and this is being reinforced by another set of NW swell moving 
into the waters north of 15N and west of 130W, with seas in the 
8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft combined 
seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the set of NW swell over the waters north of 
15N and west of 130W will propagate to the southeast while slowly
subsiding through midweek, but will then be reinforced through 
late week by a new set of NW swell. Little change elsewhere.

$$
Christensen