000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232004
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N93W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N93W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 03N to 08N between 95W and 103W, and from 02N to 
06N between 132W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 7 to 8 ft, are 
noted off Baja California Norte. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds, and seas of 6 to 7 ft, are over the waters off Baja 
California Sur. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are 
over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 3 ft or less, are over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, a weak cold front across the Gulf of 
California and just S of Punta Eugenia will dissipate by tonight.
NW swell with seas to 8 ft off over the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte will spread southward to just N of Cabo San 
Lazaro through mid week. Seas will diminish into late Thu. 
Another set of large NW swell will move into the waters off Baja 
California Norte Fri, then gradually subside as it moves south of
Punta Eugenia Sat. Looking ahead, strong to near- gale force gap
winds may return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sat, with gale 
conditions possible Sun and Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near- gale force gap winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are
over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate winds, and 
seas of 5-6 ft, are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will continue through late week, with associated
rough seas off Nicaragua. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW 
swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 25N131W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade 
winds north of the ITCZ to near 10N and west of 130W. Seas are in
the 8 to 12 ft range in this area, in a mix of NW and SE swell 
and NE wind waves. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of the
ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. A
set of NW swell is moving into the waters north of 15N and west 
of 130W, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Gentle to moderate 
breezes and 5 to 7 ft combined seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the set of NW swell over the waters north of 
15N and west of 130W will propagate to the southeast while slowly
subsiding through midweek, but will then be reinforced through 
late week by a new set of NW swell. Little change elsewhere.

$$
AL