000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231509
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N90W to 06N101W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 96W and 104W, and
from 03N to 06N between 133W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Moderate winds and seas to 5 ft the Gulf of Tehuantepec are 
diminishing. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 7 to 8 
ft are noted off Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and seas of 6 to 7 ft, are over the waters off Baja
California Sur. Gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are over the 
remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds,
and seas of 3-4 ft are over the northern Gulf of California, with
light to gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less are over the
remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move across Baja 
California and dissipate south of Punta Eugenia today, 
accompanied by moderate to fresh NW winds. Large NW swell with 
seas to 9 ft will follow the front over the offshore waters north
of Cabo San Lazaro by mid week. Winds and seas will diminish 
into late Thu and persist through Sat as high pressure builds 
over the area north of 20N. Another set of large NW swell will 
move into the waters off Baja California Norte Fri, then 
gradually subside as it moves south of Punta Eugenia Sat. Gentle 
breezes will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong to near- 
gale force gap winds may return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec late 
Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near- gale force gap winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are
over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are over and downstream the Gulf of
Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through late week, with associated 
rough seas off Nicaragua. Rough seas will affect the offshore 
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through late today, related 
to swell generated from the ongoing Papagayo and earlier 
Tehuantepec gap wind events. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW 
swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 27N135W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade 
winds north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 130W. Seas are 
in the 8 to 12 ft range in this area, in a mix of NW and SE 
swell and NE wind waves. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N
of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft
range. A set of NW swell is moving into the waters north of 15N 
and west of 130W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft 
combined seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the set of NW swell over the waters north of 
15N and west of 130W will propagate to the southeast while slowly
subsiding through midweek, but will then be reinforced through 
late week by a new set of NW swell. Little change elsewhere.

$$
AL