000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230904
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N90W to 05N110W to 03N125W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 
91W and 93W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 6 ft the Gulf of Tehuantepec
are diminishing. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 7 
ft are noted off Baja California Norte. Gentle to locally 
moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft, are over the remainder of 
the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 
ft or less are over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into Baja
California and dissipate south of Punta Eugenia today,
accompanied by fresh to strong NW winds. Large NW swell with 
seas to 9 ft will follow the front over the offshore waters north
of Cabo San Lazaro by mid week. Winds and seas will diminish into
late Thu and persist through Sat as high pressure builds over 
the area north of 20N. Another set of large NW swell will move 
into the waters off Baja California Norte Fri, then gradually
subside as it moves south of Punta Eugenia Sat. Gentle breezes
will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force gap
winds may return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong 
gap winds. Combined seas farther downstream are estimated to be  
and seas to 8 ft. Fresh N winds and 5-7 ft seas are evident over
the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas 
of 4-6 ft, prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through late week, with associated 
rough seas off Nicaragua. Rough seas will affect the offshore 
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through late today, related 
to swell generated from the ongoing Papagayo and earlier 
Tehuantepec gap wind events. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW 
swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 26N136W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 120W. Seas are 
in the 8 to 11 ft range in this area, in a mix of NW and SE swell
and NE wind waves. A new set of NW swell is moving into the
waters north of 15N and west of 130W. A plume of 7 to 8 ft seas 
in E swell associated with gap wind events is evident from 
roughly 06N to 11N east of 105W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5
to 7 ft combined seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the set of NW swell over the north of 15N and
west of 130W will propagate to the southeast while slowly 
subsiding through midweek, but will then be reinforced through
late week by a new set of NW swell. Little change elsewhere.

$$
Christensen