000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230315
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N90W to 05N110W to 03N125W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 
91W and 94W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are subsiding rapidly. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are noted off Baja California Norte.
Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft, are 
over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 3 ft, or less are over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are diminishing rapidly. Farther north, large NW 
swell with seas to 9 ft impacting the waters off Baja California 
Norte will cover the offshore area of Baja California north of
Cabo San Lazaro by mid week. A weak cold front will move across 
the Baja California Norte offshores overnight, then dissipate
Tue south of Punta Eugenia. This will bringing moderate to fresh
W to SW winds north of Punta Eugenia, and fresh to locally 
strong winds in the northern Gulf of California late tonight. Gentle
to moderate NW to N winds will prevail along the Baja Peninsula 
offshores through Sat. Large NW swell off Baja California will 
subside through late Thu. A new set of NW swell will move into 
the waters off Baja California Norte Fri. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong gap winds may return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds and seas to 9 ft prevail over and 
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds, and 
seas of 5-7 ft, are over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will continue through late week, with associated
rough seas off Nicaragua. Rough seas will affect the offshore
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala into Tue, related to swell
generated from the ongoing Papagayo and earlier Tehuantepec gap 
wind events. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will 
persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 26N137W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds north of the ITCZ to near 15N and west of 120W. Seas are 
in the 8 to 11 ft range in this area, in a mix of NW and SE swell
and NE wind waves. A new set of NW swell is moving into the
waters north of 15N and west of 130W. A plume of 7 to 9 ft seas 
in E swell associated with gap wind events is evident from 
roughly 06N to 11N east of 105W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5
to 7 ft combined seas persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the set of NW swell over the north of 15N and
west of 130W will propagate to the southeast while slowly 
subsiding through midweek, but will then be reinforced through
late week by a new set of NW swell. Little change elsewhere.

$$
Christensen