000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222000
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06.5N87W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06.5N87W to 06N1115W to 04N124W to 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
05N to 08N between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 03N to 08N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Strong winds and seas to 9 ft prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 7-9 ft 
are noted off Baja California Norte. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are over the remainder of the open 
waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft, or 
less are over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish by this evening. Farther north, large 
NW swell with seas to 9 ft impacting the waters off Baja 
California Norte will cover the entire offshore area of Baja 
California by mid week. A weakening cold front or a remnant 
trough will move across the Baja California Norte offshores 
through tonight bringing moderate to fresh W to SW winds N of 
Punta Eugenia, and fresh to locally strong winds in the northern 
Gulf of California late tonight. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW
winds will prevail along the Baja Peninsula offshores through 
mid-week. Large NW swell off Baja California will subside through
late Thu. A new set of NW swell will move into the waters off 
Baja California Norte Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds, and seas to 9 ft, prevail over and
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft, are over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through late week, with associated 
rough seas off Nicaragua. Rough seas will affect the offshore 
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala into Tue, related to swell 
generated from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind events. 
Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 26N135W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds N 
of the ITCZ to near 11N and W of 130W. Seas are in the 8-12 ft 
range in this area. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere
N of the ITCZ to 12N. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity 
of the high center. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 
8-10 ft are elsewhere S of 16N and W of 110W. NW swell is 
propagating into the far NW waters, with seas in the 8-11 ft 
range. Seas of 5-8 ft are noted over the remainder of the 
discussion waters. 

For the forecast, the set of NW swell over the NW waters will
propagate SE while slowly subsiding through midweek, when another
set of NW swell reaches the NW waters. Little change elsewhere. 

$$
AL