848 
AXPZ20 KNHC 221440
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06.5N87W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06.5N87W to 04N124W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 94W and 99W, and 
from 01N to 06N between 130W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Strong to near gale force winds and seas to 9 ft prevail in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of
7-9 ft are noted off Baja California Norte. Gentle to locally
moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, are over the remainder of the
open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft
or less are over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force gap winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish into this afternoon, along 
with associated rough seas. Farther north, large NW swell with 
seas to 9 ft impacting the waters off Baja California Norte will 
cover the entire offshore area of Baja California by mid week. A 
weakening cold front or a remnant trough will move across the 
Baja California Norte offshores through tonight bringing moderate
to fresh W to SW winds N of Punta Eugenia, and fresh to strong 
winds in the northern Gulf of California late tonight. Afterward,
gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail along the Baja 
Peninsula offshores through mid-week. Large NW swell off Baja 
California will subside through late Thu. A new set of NW swell 
will move into the waters off Baja California Norte Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds, and seas to 9 ft, prevail over and
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-7 ft, are over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo.
Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are in the
vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through late week, with associated 
rough seas off Nicaragua. Rough seas will affect the offshore 
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala into Tue, related to swell 
generated from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind events. 
Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 25N138W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds N of
the ITCZ to near 12N and W of 130W. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range
in this area. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of the 
ITCZ to 12N. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the 
high center. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 7-10 ft 
are elsewhere S of 16N and W of 115W. NW swell is propagating 
into the far NW waters, with seas in the 8-10 ft range. Seas of 
5-8 ft are noted over the remainder of the discussion waters. 

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move eastward north of 
25N from 130W to Baja California today, followed by a new round 
of NW swell that will dominate the waters west of 120W by mid 
week with 8 to 12 ft seas. Little change elsewhere. 

$$
AL