471 
AXPZ20 KNHC 220847
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Panama near 
09N78W to 07N85W. The ITCZ extends from 07N85W to 05N95W to
04N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
ongoing from within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed gap winds across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec have subsided to below gale force. This
is in response to weakening high pressure over the western Gulf
of Mexico. Winds remain strong to near-gale however, and a
concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicates rough seas persist
as far as 135 nm from the coast of the Tehuantepec isthmus. Farther
north, easterly swell to 8 ft persists off Baja California 
Norte, with gentle easterly breezes. Gentle breezes persist 
elsewhere as well across Mexican offshore waters with slight seas
primarily in NW swell over open waters.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force gap winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish into this afternoon, along 
with associated rough seas. Farther north, large NW swell with 
seas to 9 ft impacting the waters off Baja California Norte will 
cover the entire offshore area of Baja California by mid week. A 
weakening cold front or a remnant trough will move across the 
Baja California Norte offshores through tonight bringing moderate
to fresh W to SW winds N of Punta Eugenia, and fresh to strong 
winds in the northern Gulf of California late tonight. Afterward,
gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail along the Baja 
Peninsula offshores through mid-week. Looking ahead, large NW 
swell off Baja California will subside through late Thu, just 
ahead of new round of swell arriving off Baja California Norte 
Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent reports from Liberia, Costa Rica near the Gulf of 
Papagayo indicate fresh to strong gap winds are likely ongoing 
across the adjacent waters. A plume of fresh NE to E winds with 5
to 7 ft seas is likely extending from northwest Costa Rica out 
360 nm with 5 to 7 ft seas. Farther south, a recent scatterometer
satellite pass along with earlier ship observation off the east 
coast of the Azuero Peninsula in the Gulf of Panama confirmed 
fresh to strong N gap winds in that area as well. Elsewhere, 
gentle breezes persist, along with moderate combined seas 
primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will continue through late next week, with 
associated rough seas off Nicaragua. Rough seas will continue to 
affect the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala into Tue,
related to swell generated from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap
wind events. Farther south, fresh to locally strong winds over 
the Gulf of Panama will diminish later today. Gentle breezes and 
moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the waters north of 15N, from a 
1017 mb high center near 22N130W. This pattern is supporting 
gentle to moderate winds north of 15N, and moderate to fresh 
trade winds north of the ITCZ to 15N west of 125W. NW swell of 7 
to 10 ft persists north of 27N west of 125W. Combined seas are 8
to 10 ft south of 15N and west of 125W, in a mix of NW swell, SE
swell, and shorter period waves due to trade winds. Gentle to 
moderate winds persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas.

For the forecast, a very weak cold front will move eastward north
of 25N from 130W to Baja California Mon, followed by a new round
of NW swell that will dominate the waters west of 120W by mid
week with 8 to 12 ft seas. Wave heights will build tonight 
through Tue east of 110W from 08N to 10N due to NE to E swell 
from gap winds in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo areas propagating 
westward. Little change elsewhere. 

$$
Christensen