000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jan 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: High pressure and cooler air over the Gulf of Mexico continues to support winds to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. These winds will diminish to below gale-force overnight as the high pressure weakens and shifts east. Associated rough seas will linger to Mon afternoon. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W to 06N90W. The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 03N105W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from within 60 nm north of the ITCZ west of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the ongoing gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Recent trends in the observations from San Dionisio del Mar on the Pacific coast of the Tehuantepec isthmus show winds are starting to diminish. While there is no recent wave height data from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, rough seas to 8 ft likely persist within 60 nm of the coast. Fresh to strong NE to E winds extend farther out to beyond 360 nm offshore. Combined seas beyond 240 nm are likely reaching 8 ft in a combination of N to NE swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mixing with E swell emerging from gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Farther north, easterly swell to 8 ft persists off Baja California Norte, with gentle easterly breezes. Gentle breezes persist elsewhere as well across Mexican offshore waters with slight seas primarily in NW swell over open waters. For the forecast, gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will diminish to strong to near gale-force overnight, with rough seas persisting in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Mon afternoon. Large NW swell with seas to 9 ft impacting the waters off Baja California Norte will cover the entire offshore area of Baja California by mid week. A weakening cold front or a remnant trough will move across the Baja California Norte offshores Mon bringing moderate to fresh W to SW winds N of Punta Eugenia, and fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California Mon night. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail along the Baja Peninsula offshores through mid-week. NW swell associated with this front or its remnants will subside below 8 ft on Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier reports from Liberia, Costa Rica near the Gulf of Papagayo indicate fresh to strong gap winds are likely ongoing across the adjacent waters. A plume of fresh NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas is likely extending from northwest Costa Rica out 360 nm with 5 to 7 ft seas. Farther south, a recent ship observation off the east coast of the Azuero Peninsula in the Gulf of Panama confirmed fresh to strong N gap winds in that area as well. Elsewhere, gentle breezes persist, along with moderate combined seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through late next week, with associated rough seas off Nicaragua. Rough seas will continue to affect the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala into Tue, related to swell generated from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind events. Farther south, fresh to locally strong winds will persist over the Gulf of Panama into Tue. Gentle breezes and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends across the waters north of 15N, from a 1017 mb high center near 24N130W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 15N, and moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 15N west of 125W. NW swell of 7 to 10 ft persists north of 27N west of 125W. Combined seas are 8 to 10 ft south of 15N and west of 125W, in a mix of NW swell, SE swell, and shorter period waves due to trade winds. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas. For the forecast, a very weak cold front will move eastward north of 25N from 130W to Baja California Mon, followed by a new round of NW swell that will dominate the waters west of 120W by mid week with 8 to 12 ft seas. Wave heights will build tonight through Tue east of 110W from 08N to 10N due to NE to E swell from gap winds in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo areas propagating westward. Little change elsewhere. $$ Christensen