000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212208
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Surface ridging over the Gulf
of Mexico in the wake of a former cold front is providing fresh
to strong N and NE winds in that basin. These winds are funneling
through the Chivela Pass, leading to the continuation of the gale
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region this afternoon. Gales 
are forecast to continue through tonight along with rough seas to
11 ft. Afterward, strong to near gale force winds will gradually
diminish and become gentle to moderate Mon in the afternoon. 
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
08N82W to 05N92W. The ITCZ extends from 05N92W to 03N110W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 
01N to 06N E of 88W, and from 02N to 07N W of 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section for information on the 
ongoing gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec

Gale force winds persist over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region
with rough seas to 11 ft. NW swell of 5 to 9 ft in the wake of a
former cold front continue to propagate SE across the offshore 
waters of Baja California Sur. The remnants of this front, 
analyzed as a surface trough are supporting gentle to moderate NW
winds along the Baja Peninsula offshore waters as well as in the 
northern Gulf of California. Seas in the Gulf of California are 
1-3 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are 
noted elsewhere across the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas 
in the 3-5 ft range in NW swell. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region will diminish to strong to near gale-force late tonight 
into early Mon. Large NW swell with seas to 9 ft impacting the 
waters off Baja California will subside tonight. A weakening 
cold front or a remnant trough will move across the Baja 
California Norte offshores Mon morning bringing moderate to fresh
W to SW winds and seas to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and fresh to 
strong winds in the northern Gulf of California Mon night. 
Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail along the 
Baja Peninsula offshores through mid-week. NW swell associated
with this front or its remnants will subside below 8 ft on Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to near gale-force gap winds continue to pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo. Rough seas to 10 ft are evident downstream of the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Swell from this gap wind event is impacting 
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Fresh to strong  
N winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are evident across the Gulf of 
Panama. Elsewhere, gentle breezes persist, along with moderate 
combined seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will continue through late next week, with
associated rough seas off Nicaragua. Rough seas will continue to
affect the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala into
Tue, related to swell generated from the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap
wind events. Farther south, fresh to locally strong winds will 
persist over the Gulf of Panama through Wed. Gentle breezes and 
moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the waters north of 15N, from a 
1020 mb high center near 22N120W. This pattern is supporting 
gentle to moderate winds north of 15N, and moderate to fresh 
trade winds north of the ITCZ to 15N west of 125W. NW swell of 7 
to 10 ft persists north of 15N west of 120W. Combined seas are 8 
to 10 ft south of 15N and west of 125W, in a mix of NW swell, SE
swell, and shorter period waves due to trade winds. Gentle to 
moderate winds persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas.

For the forecast, a very weak cold front will move eastward north
of 25N from 130W to Baja California Mon, followed by a new round
of NW swell that will dominate the waters west of 120W by mid
week with 8 to 12 ft seas. Wave heights will build tonight 
through Tue east of 110W from 08N to 10N due to NE to E swell 
from gap winds in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo areas propagating 
westward. Little change elsewhere. 

$$
Ramos