000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211600
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Surface ridging over the Gulf
of Mexico in the wake of a former cold front is providing fresh
to strong N and NE winds in that basin. These winds are funneling
through the Chivela Pass, leading to the continuation of the gale
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region this morning. Gales are
forecast to continue through tonight along with rough seas to 12
ft. Afterward, strong to near gale force winds will gradually 
diminish and become gentle to moderate Mon in the afternoon. 
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
08N82W to 05N91W. The ITCZ extends from 05N91W to 05N120W to 
beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 
01N to 06N E of 87W, and from 03N to 07N W of 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section for information on the 
ongoing gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec

Gale force winds persist over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region
with rough seas to 12 ft. NW swell of 5 to 9 ft in the wake of a
former cold front continue to propagate SE across the offshore 
waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro. The remnants of
this front, analyzed as a surface trough are supporting fresh to
locally strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California. Seas
in the Gulf of California are 1-3 ft. Light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the SW Mexican
offshore waters with seas in the 3-5 ft range in NW swell. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region will diminish to strong to near gale-force late Sun night
into early Mon. Large NW swell with seas to 9 ft will continue to impact
the waters off Baja California Norte through tonight. A weakening
cold front will move across the Baja California Norte offshores 
Mon morning bringing moderate to fresh W to SW winds and seas to 
8 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and fresh to strong winds in the 
northern Gulf of California Mon night. Afterward, gentle to 
moderate NW winds will prevail along the Baja Peninsula offshores
through mid-week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite data showed plumes of fresh to
strong gap winds between the Gulf of Papagayo, the coast of
Nicaragua and the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate to rough seas are
evident downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 90W. N swell
originating from the gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec may be impacting the offshore waters of Guatemala.
Farther south, fresh N winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident
across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, gentle breezes persist,
along with moderate combined seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will continue through late next week, with
associated rough seas off Nicaragua. Rough seas will continue to
affect the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala into
Tue, related to swell generated from both the Papagayo gap winds
and from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Farther south,
moderate to fresh winds will persist over the Gulf of Panama
through Wed, pulsing to fresh to strong tonight. Gentle breezes 
and moderate S to SW swell will persist elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge extends across the waters north of 20N, from a 
1017 mb high center near 23N124W. This pattern is supporting
gentle to moderate winds north of 15N, and moderate to fresh 
trade winds north of the ITCZ to 15N west of 125W. NW swell of 7
to 10 ft persists north of 15N west of 120W. Combined seas are 8
to 11 ft south of 15N and west of 125W, in a mix of NW swell, SE
swell, and shorter period waves due to trade winds. Gentle to 
moderate winds persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas.

For the forecast, a very weak cold front will move eastward north
of 25N from 130W to Baja California Mon, followed by a new round
of NW swell that will dominate the waters west of 120W by mid
week with 8 to 12 ft seas. Wave heights will build late Sun 
through Tue east of 110W from 08N to 10N due to NE to E swell 
from gap winds in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo areas propagating 
westward. Little change elsewhere. 

$$
Ramos