000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: High pressure building over 
the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front extending from the Straits
of Florida SW to the Bay of Campeche will continue to support N 
to NE gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region into
Sun night, along with rough to very rough seas to 15 ft.
Afterward, strong to near gale force winds will gradually
diminish and become gentle to moderate Mon in the afternoon.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W
to 06N90W to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W to 05N120W to 
beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 
02N to 05N E of 84W, from 04N to 12N between 93W and 106W, and 
from 02N to 06N W of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section for information on the 
ongoing gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec

Gale force N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region with seas to 15 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere 
supports light to gentle NW winds N of 15N, except for moderate
NW winds along the coast between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta
Eugenia, and moderate SW winds N of Punta Eugenia ahead of an
approaching weakening cold front. Seas N of Punta Eugenia are in
the 5 to 7 ft range in NW swell due to the aforementioned front.
Elsewhere along the Baja California Sur and the SW Mexican
offshores, seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range in NW swell.

For the forecast, gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region will diminish to strong to near gale-force early on Mon. 
Large NW swell with seas to 9 ft associated with the weakening
cold front will affect the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia 
tonight through Sun evening. A new cold front will move across 
the Baja California Norte offshores Mon morning bringing 
moderate to fresh W to SW winds and seas to 8 ft N of Punta 
Eugenia, and fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of
California Mon night. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds 
will prevail along the Baja Peninsula offshores through mid- 
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region with waveheights to 8 ft extending to 91W. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6
ft extending to 03N. Winds are gentle to locally moderate from 
the south, between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands and seas are
in the 5-6 ft range in southerly swell. Otherwise, rough seas to
10 ft are ongoing over the SW portion of the the Guatemala 
offshores due to an ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will continue through Fri next week, with 7-10 ft
seas. Moderate to fresh winds will persist over the Gulf of 
Panama through Wed, pulsing to strong speeds Sun and Mon nights.
Rough seas will continue to affect the Guatemala offshore waters
through Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N123W to 28N127W. A surface ridge is
to the south of the weakening cold front, which is anchored by a
pair of 1018 mb high centers. This pattern is supporting 
moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 17N, west of 
125W, where seas are estimated to be about 7 to 11 ft in a mix 
of swell. Light to gentle W winds follow the front, however NW 
swell accompanying the front support seas to 11 ft. Gentle to 
moderate winds persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it moves across 
the north-central and northeast waters through today. Large NW 
swell following the front will subside below 8 ft north of 15N 
through late Sun. Combined seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist farther
south into the trade area south of 15N and west of 120W in a mix
of NW with SE swell, along with shorter period NE wind waves. 
Looking ahead, wave height will increase west of 130W early next 
week as another group of NW swell propagates into the region.

$$
Ramos