000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200845
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: High pressure building over 
the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front moving into southern 
Mexico will support gale force winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec into Sun night, along with rough to very rough seas.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 
06N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06N100W to 07N110W to beyond 
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 08N
between 102W and 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see the Special Features section for 
information on the gale warnings in the Gulf of Tehuantepec

Recent scatterometer satellite data from 03 UTC confirms winds
are reaching minimal gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Seas are likely 8 to 12 ft in this area as well. Mostly gentle 
breezes persist elsewhere over Mexican coastal waters with 3 to 5
ft combined seas primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, the gale-force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will result in a plume of rough to very rough seas 
extending well past the offshore waters into early Mon. 
Elsewhere, large NW swell with seas to 9 ft will move across the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters tonight into Sun night 
associated with a weakening cold front that will dissipate early 
Sun. A new cold front will move across the Baja California Norte 
offshores Mon afternoon bringing moderate to fresh W to SW winds 
and seas to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Afterward, gentle to 
moderate NW winds will prevail along the Baja Peninsula offshores
through mid-week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Waveheights in this area are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. 
Fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to
around 6 ft. Winds are gentle to locally moderate from the south
between Ecuador and the Galapagos. Seas are 3 to 5 ft due to 
long- period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week,
with 7 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds will persist over 
the Gulf of Panama through the early part of the week. Rough 
seas are expected in the Guatemala offshores through Sun due to 
northerly swell associated with gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving eastward across the waters north of 27N
between 123W and 139W. A surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high
pressure near 23N121W to past 20N140W. Recent scatterometer and 
buoy data shows this pattern is supporting moderate to fresh 
trade winds north of the ITCZ to 15N, west of 125W, where seas 
are estimated to be about 7 to 10 ft in a mix of swell. Moderate 
W winds follow the front north of 27N. Altimeter satellite data 
shows NW swell also accompanying the front, likely 8 to 12 ft 
north of 25N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds persist 
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it moves across 
the north-central and northeast waters through today. Large NW 
swell following the front will subside below 8 ft north of 15N 
through late Sun. Combined seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist farther
south into the trade area south of 15N and west of 120W in a mix
of NW with SE swell, along with shorter period NE wind waves. 
Looking ahead, wave height will increase west of 130W early next 
week as another group of NW swell propagates into the region.

$$
Christensen