000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jan 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: High pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front moving into southern Mexico late today will allow fresh to strong gap winds to increase to gale force this evening into Sun night, along with rough to very rough seas. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 06N105W. The ITCZ extends from 06N105W to 07N110W to beyond 05N140W. No significant convection is evident along the ITCZ or monsoon trough at this time. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent reports from San Dionisio del Mar on the Pacific coast of the Tehuantepec isthmus have been showing peak winds to minimal gale force over the past several hours. This is a good indication of 35 to 40 kt winds over the adjacent Gulf of Tehuantepec. The duration of the gale force winds may be enough to support 8 ft seas within 60 nm of the coast. Mostly gentle breezes persist elsewhere over Mexican coastal waters with 3 to 5 ft combined seas primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warnings in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will result in a plume of rough to very rough seas extending well past the offshore waters into early Mon. Elsewhere, large NW swell with seas to 9 ft will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sat night into Sun night associated with a weakening cold front that will dissipate early Sun. A new cold front will move across the Baja California Norte offshores Mon afternoon bringing moderate to fresh W to SW winds and seas to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail along the Baja Peninsula offshores through mid-week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Waveheights in this area are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft. Fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to around 6 ft. Winds are gentle to locally moderate from the south between Ecuador and the Galapagos. Seas are 3-5 ft due to long- period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week. These winds are expected to expand in coverage from late Sat night through Mon, while reaching near-gale force as seas build to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama may pulse to strong speeds tonight through Sun night. Rough seas are expected in the Guatemala offshores Sat through Sun due to northerly swell associated with gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is moving eastward across the waters north of 27N between 125W and 130W. A 1017 mb high pressure area is centered near 25N120W, and is weakening ahead of the approaching cold front. A surface ridge extends from the high pressure to past 20N140W. Recent scatterometer and buoy data shows this pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 15N, west of 125W, where seas are estimated to be about 7 to 10 ft in a mix of swell. Moderate W winds follow the front north of 27N. Altimeter satellite data shows NW swell also accompanying the front, likely 8 to 12 ft north of 25N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it moves across the north-central and northeast waters through overnight. Large NW swell following the front will subside below 8 ft north of 15N through late Sun. Combined seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist farther south into the trade area south of 15N and west of 120W in a mix of NW with SE swell, along with shorter period NE wind waves. Looking ahead, wave height will increase west of 130W early next week as another group of NW swell propagates into the region. $$ Christensen