000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: High pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front moving into southern Mexico late today will allow fresh to strong gap winds to increase to gale force this evening into Sun night, along with rough to very rough seas. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 06N93W to 06N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06N100W to 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 09N between 92W and 106W, from 01N to 06N between 114W and 124W, and from 02N to 07N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near gale-force N to NE winds are ongoing over the region of Tehuantepec along with seas to 6 ft. Farther north, a surface ridge is centered by a 1021 mb high just W of the Baja California offshores. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore waters outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warnings in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, large NW swell with seas in the 8 to 9 ft will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sat night into Sun night associated with a weakening cold front that will dissipate early Sun. A new cold front will move across the Baja California Norte offshores Mon afternoon bringing moderate to fresh W to SW winds and seas to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail along the Baja Peninsula offshores through mid-week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Waveheights in this area are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft. Fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to around 6 ft. Winds are gentle to locally moderate from the south between Ecuador and the Galapagos. Seas are 3-5 ft due to long- period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through the middle of next week. These winds are expected to expand in coverage from late Sat night through Mon, while reaching near-gale force as seas build to 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama will pulse to strong at night Fri night through Sun night. Rough seas are expected in the Guatemala offshores starting Sun due to northerly swell associated with gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N129W to 27N137W. Moderate to fresh W winds and 8 to 14 ft combined seas follow the front. SW fresh winds are ahead of the front to 122W. Elsewhere between the Baja Peninsula offshores and the front, a surface ridge is centered by a 1021 mb high pressure. Fresh trade winds are ongoing from 05N to 15N west of 125W, with 8 to 9 ft combined seas. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere between 15N and the ITCZ E of 125W. South of the ITCZ, winds are moderate to fresh from the SE W of 115W. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it moves across the north-central and northeast waters through late tonight. The accompanying fresh to strong winds will then shift north of 30N this afternoon. Large NW swell following the front will subside below 8 ft north of 15N through late Sun. Combined seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist farther south into the trade area south of 15N and west of 120W in a mix of NW with SE swell, along with shorter period NE wind waves. Looking ahead, wave height will increase west of 130W early next week as another group of NW swell propagates into the region. $$ Ramos