000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: High pressure building over 
the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front moving into southern 
Mexico late today will allow fresh to strong gap winds to 
increase to gale force this evening into Sun night, along with 
rough to very rough seas. Please see the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 06N93W to 06N100W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N100W to 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 09N between
92W and 106W, from 01N to 06N between 114W and 124W, and from 02N
to 07N W of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are ongoing over the region of 
Tehuantepec. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from a 1020 
mb high pressure centered just W of the Baja California 
offshores. This feature is supporting gentle to locally moderate 
NW winds and slight to moderate seas across the Mexican offshore 
waters outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for 
information on the gale warnings in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Elsewhere, large NW swell with seas in the 8 to 9 ft will move 
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sat night into 
Sun night associated with a weakening cold front that will 
dissipate early Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Waveheights in this area are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. 
Fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are up 
to around 6 ft. Winds are gentle to locally moderate from the 
south between Ecuador and the Galapagos. Seas are 3-5 ft due to 
long- period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region will continue through early next week. These 
winds are expected to expand in coverage from late Sat night 
through Mon, while reaching near-gale force as seas build to 8 
to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama will 
pulse to strong at night Fri night through Sun night. Rough seas 
are expected in the Guatemala offshores starting Sun due to 
northerly swell associated with gale force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is over the waters extending from 30N132W to 
26N136W. Fresh to strong W winds and 8 to 16 ft combined seas 
follow the front. SW fresh to strong winds are ahead of the 
front to 125W. Elsewhere between the Baja Peninsula offshores 
and the front, a surface ridge is centered by a 1020 mb high 
pressure near 24N121W. Fresh trade winds are ongoing from 05N to 
12N west of 124W, with 8 to 9 ft combined seas. Gentle to 
moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted 
elsewhere south of 15N and E of 124W. South of the ITCZ, winds 
are moderate to fresh from the SE W of 115W.   

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it moves across 
the north-central and northeast waters through late tonight. The 
accompanying fresh to strong winds will then shift north of 30N 
this afternoon. Large NW swell following the front will subside 
below 8 ft north of 15N through late Sun. Combined seas of 8 to 
9 ft will persist farther south into the trade area south of 15N 
and west of 120W in a mix of NW with SE swell, along with 
shorter period NE wind waves. Looking ahead, wave height will 
increase west of 130W early next week as another group of NW 
swell propagates into the region.

$$
Ramos