000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190939 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: High pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front moving into southern Mexico late today will allow fresh to strong gap winds to increase to gale force this evening into Sun night, along with rough to very rough seas. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 07N80W to 09N85W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 04N110W to beyond 05N140W. No significant convection is evident along the monsoon trough or ITCZ at this time. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent surface observations from the Pacific coast of the Tehuantepec isthmus indicate winds are increasing, and probably are already sustained strong over the adjacent waters. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure centered off the coast of Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted across the Mexican offshore waters outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warnings in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, large NW swell with seas in the 8 to 9 ft will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sat night into Sun night associated with a weakening cold front that will dissipate early Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A scatterometer satellite pass from 0330 UTC indicated fresh to strong northeast winds persisting in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Waveheights in this area are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft. Fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to around 6 ft. Winds are gentle to locally moderate from the south between Ecuador and the Galapagos. Seas are 3-5 ft due to long- period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through early next week. These winds are expected to expand in coverage from late Sat night through Mon, while reaching near-gale force as seas build to 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama will pulse to strong at night Fri night through Sun night. Rough seas are expected in the Guatemala offshores starting Sun due to northerly swell associated with gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A pair of cold fronts are merging over the waters north of 25N and west of 135W. Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes indicate fresh to strong SW to W winds and 8 to 11 ft combined seas near the merging frontal boundaries. Elsewhere north of 15N, and surface ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure reaching from 1020 mb pressure centered near 27N125W off the coast of Baja California to near 20N140W. The scatterometer and altimeter passes indicated moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 10N west of 120W, with 8 to 10 ft combined seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere south of 15N. For the forecast, the aforementioned fronts will merge into a single front early this morning. This front will then weaken as it moves across the north- central and northeast waters through late tonight. The accompanying fresh to strong winds will then shift north of 30N this afternoon. Large NW swell following the front will subside below 8 ft north of 15N through late Sun. Combined seas of 8 to 10 ft will persist farther south into the trade area south of 15N and west of 120W in a mix of NW with SE swell, along with shorter period NE wind waves. Looking ahead, wave height will increase west of 130W early next week as another group of NW swell propagates into the region. $$ Christensen