000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190346
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: High pressure building over 
the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front moving into southern 
Mexico late Fri will allow fresh to strong gap winds to increase 
to gale force Fri evening into Sun night, along with rough to 
very rough seas. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 06N90W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 05N110W to beyond 06N140W. No
significant convection is evident along the monsoon trough or
ITCZ at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Earlier scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to fresh
northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Recent surface
observations from the Pacific coast of the Tehuantepec isthmus
indicate winds are increasing, and probably are already sustained
strong over the adjacent waters. Farther north, a surface ridge 
extends from 1020 mb high pressure centered along the coast of 
Southern California southward to off the coast of Baja 
California. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
are noted across the Mexican offshore waters outside of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for
information on the gale warnings in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Elsewhere, large NW swell with seas in the 8 to 9 ft will move 
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sat night into 
Sun night associated with a weakening cold front that will 
dissipate early Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region with seas to around 10 ft. Fresh north winds are in the 
Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to around 6 ft. Winds are 
gentle to locally moderate from the south between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos. Seas are 3-5 ft due to long-period south to 
southwest swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will continue through early next week. These
winds are expected to expand in coverage from late Sat night
through Mon, while reaching near gale force as seas build to
8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, fresh north to northeast winds in the
Gulf of Panama will change little into Sat, then briefly 
increase to fresh to strong speeds Sat night. Rough seas are 
expected in the Guatemala offshores starting Sun due to northerly
swell associated with gale force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front moving into the discussion to the southeast of
30N140W is being reinforced by a second cold front approaching
the area from the northwest. Fresh to strong SW winds are active
withing 120 nm ahead of these fronts, with combined seas 
reaching 8 to 12 ft in NW swell. Farther south, the axis of a 
surface ridge extends from Baja California Norte to 20N140W,
resulting in mostly gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 6 ft
combined seas north of 15N. Moderate to fresh winds and 7 to 10
ft seas are noted farther south in a mix of swell. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned fronts will merge into a
single front overnight. This front will then weaken as it moves 
across the north- central and northeast waters through late Fri 
night. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are expected 
through early Fri morning in advance of the front, north of about
26N and west of 128W. These winds will then move north of 30N by
Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong west winds will follow in behind 
the front through tonight along with seas of 10 to 15 ft in northwest
swell. Seas are forecast to subside to 8 to 11 ft early Sat. Elsewhere,
conditions are not forecast to change much into Mon. Looking
ahead, wave height will increase west of 130W early next week as
another group of NW swell propagates into the region.

$$
Christensen