000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jan 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas to 6 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight into Fri morning as a next gap wind event unfolds. Winds will continue to increase and reach gale force Fri night. Gales will then continue through the weekend, with seas peaking near 15 ft on Sat. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia west-southwest to southern Panama near 07N81W to 08N89W where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N110W to 04N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05N E of 80W, from 05N to 10N between 107W and 123W, and from 02N to 08N W of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging present west of the Baja California offshore waters is anchored by high pressure of 1021 mb located west of Baja California Norte near 29N120W. This is providing light to gentle winds over the offshore waters to the west of Baja California. Seas are 5-6 ft in NW swell in this area. Light and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California along with seas of 1-3 ft. Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are light to gentle, except for locally moderate NW winds along the coast. Seas in the S and SW Mexican offshores remain in the 3-5 ft range in to NW swell. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate northerly winds are forecast across the Baja California offshore waters through Mon. Large NW swell with seas in the 8 to 9 ft will move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sat night into Sun associated with a weakening cold front that will dissipate early Sun. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to begin tonight, and continue through the weekend, with gale force winds developing Fri night and continuing through Sun night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to around 10 ft. Fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to around 6 ft. Winds are gentle to locally moderate from the S between Ecuador and the Galapagos.Seas are 3-5 ft due to long-period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through early next week. These winds will decrease in coverage this afternoon and again on Fri. They are expected to expand in coverage from late Sat night through Mon, while reaching near gale force as seas build to 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little through Sun, then briefly increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun night. Otherwise, rough seas in northerly swell will continue to affect the Guatemala offshore waters today and early this evening due to a strong gap wind event currently affecting the Tehuantepec region. Rough seas are expected once again in the Guatemala offshore starting Sat through Sun as a result of the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Seas of 8-12 ft are west of 129W due to long-period northwest swell. Former cold front has stalled over the NW waters. A 1019 mb high center is analyzed near 28N121W. The pressure gradient between this feature and the ITCZ supports fresh trade winds from the ITCZ to near 15N and west of about 116W. Seas in this area are 8-10 ft due to northeast wind waves mixed with long-period northwest to north swell. North of 22N and east of 129W, under the high pressure, winds are gentle and seas are 5-7 ft. South of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh southeast winds and 7-8 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will weaken as it moves across the north-central and northeast waters through late Fri night. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are expected through early Fri morning in advance of the front, north of about 26N and west of 128W. These winds will then move north of 30N Fri morning. Fresh to strong west winds will follow in behind the front through tonight along with seas of 11-15 ft in a northwest swell. Seas are forecast to subside to 8-11 ft early on Sat. Elsewhere, conditions are not forecast to change much through Sat. $$ Ramos