000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jan 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Winds are diminishing and seas are subsiding in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as the pressure gradient in southeastern Mexico relaxes some. Winds will continue to gradually diminish and reach gentle to moderate speeds this afternoon. Northerly winds will increase again Thu night into Fri morning as the next gap wind event begins, increasing to gale force Fri night. Gale force winds are expected to last through the weekend, with seas peaking near 13 or 14 ft on Sat. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia west-southwest to across northern Panama, and continues to 09N83W to 06N88W to 05N90W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N99W to 07N106W to 06N120W to 05N128W to 06N132W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 131W-135W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 101W-104W and also between 120W-124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging present west of the Baja California offshore waters is anchored by high pressure of 1021 mb located west of Baja California Norte near 29N125W. This is generating moderate to occasionally locally fresh northerly winds over the offshore waters to the west of Baja California. Seas are 5-6 ft in this area. Light and variable winds are in the Gulf of California along with seas of 1-3 ft. Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3-5 ft range due to long-period south to southwest swell. The exception is well offshore the Mexican states of Oaxaca and the southeastern part of Guerrero, where fresh northeast to east winds and seas to 7 ft extend well downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja California offshore waters will diminish to gentle speeds this morning as the high pressure mentioned above slides eastward over the area. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to begin Fri, and continue through the weekend, with gale force winds possible Fri night through Sun night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to around 10 ft. Fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to around 5 ft. Winds are gentle or weaker elsewhere, except for moderate northeast winds well offshore of Guatemala. Seas of 7-9 ft in northwest to north swell are currently affecting the waters offshore Guatemala due to a gale force gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, seas are 3-5 ft due to long-period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through early next week. These winds will decrease in coverage this afternoon and again on Fri. They are expected to expand in coverage from late Sat night through Mon, while reaching near gale force as seas build to 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little through Sun, then briefly increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun night. Otherwise, rough seas in northerly swell will continue to affect the Guatemala offshore waters today and early this evening due to a strong gap wind event currently affecting the Tehuantepec region. Rough seas are expected once again in the Guatemala offshore starting Sat through Sun as a result of the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Seas of 8-12 ft are west of 129W due to long-period northwest swell. A cold front has entered the far NW part of the area along a position from near 30N138W to 28N140W. A 1021 mb high center is analyzed near 29N125W. The pressure gradient between this feature and the ITCZ supports fresh trade winds from the ITCZ to near 15N and west of about 116W. Seas in this area are 8-10 ft due to northeast wind waves mixed with long-period northwest to north swell. North of 22N and east of 129W, under the high pressure, winds are gentle and seas are 5-7 ft. South of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh southeast winds and 7-8 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken as it moves across the north-central and northeast waters through late Fri night. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are expected through early Fri morning in advance of the front, north of about 26N and west of 128W. These winds will then move north of 30N Fri morning. Fresh to strong west winds will follow in behind the front through tonight along with seas of 11-15 ft in a northwest swell. Seas are forecast to subside to 8-11 ft early on Sat. Elsewhere, conditions are not forecast to change much through Sat. $$ Aguirre