000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jan 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure ridging along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains of Mexico is forcing a continuation of gale force winds up to 40 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with peak seas near 16 ft. Winds and seas will gradually diminish today. The gale force winds and seas of 12 ft or greater should end after midnight tonight, local time. Afterward, winds will continue to gradually diminish and reach gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. Northerly winds will increase again Fri morning as the next gap wind event begins, increasing to gale force Fri night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 03N93W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N110W to 05N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 111W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a gap wind gale event presently in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through tonight. Surface ridging present west of the Baja California offshore waters is anchored by high pressure of 1020 mb located west of Baja California Norte near 28N127W. This is generating moderate to occasionally fresh northerly winds over the offshore waters to the west of Baja California. Seas are 6 ft in this area. In the southern half of the Gulf of California, NW winds are moderate with seas of 2-3 ft. In the northern Gulf of California, gentle winds along with 1-2 ft seas remain there. Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California offshore waters will diminish to gentle speeds Thu morning as the high pressure mentioned above slides eastward over the area. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected to begin Fri and continue through the weekend, with gale force winds possible Fri night through Sun morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 7 ft. Fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to around 5 ft. Winds are gentle or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW to N swell are currently affecting the waters offshore Guatemala due to a gale force gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend. These winds are expected to reach near gale force tonight and also during the weekend. The area of strong winds in the offshore Papagayo region will expand some in coverage today, with developing rough seas to 9 ft by tonight. These winds should expand more in coverage Sun through Mon. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little through Sun, then increase to fresh to strong speeds late Sun. Otherwise, rough seas in northerly swell will continue to affect the Guatemala offshore waters through tonight due to a strong gap wind event currently affecting the Tehuantepec region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Seas of 8-10 ft are north of 20N and west of 130W due to long- period west to northwest swell. A 1020 mb high center is analyzed near 28N127W. The pressure gradient between this feature and the ITCZ supports fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to near 15N and west of about 116W. Seas in this area are 8-10 ft due to northeast wind waves mixed with long- period northwest to north swell. North of 22N and east of 130W, under the high pressure, winds are gentle and seas are 5-7 ft. South of the ITCZ, mostly moderate southeast winds and 7-8 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the 8-10 ft seas in the northwest part of the area will slowly subside through late tonight. A cold front is expected to enter the NW part of the area on Thu, extend from 30N132W to 24N139W early Fri, then weaken and dissipate Fri night. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are expected through Thu night in advance of the front, north of about 25N and west of 130W. These winds then move north of 30N late Thu night. Seas in the northwest part of the area will increase again to a range of 10-15 ft Thu into Fri night before shifting north of 30N early on Sat. Elsewhere, conditions are not forecast to change much through Fri night. $$ Hagen