000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170356
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure is
building southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Oriental Mountains of Mexico in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico 
cold front, and while relatively lower pressures are south of 
Mexico. This synoptic set up is producing gale force northerly 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds up to 40 to 
45 kt and building seas to 16 ft will affect the region tonight 
through Wed evening. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish 
and reach gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across 
central Panama to 08N83W and to 06N90W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ and continues to 06N90W to 04N103W to 06N120W to 
07N130W and to west of the area at 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 113W-120W, and 
within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 132W-137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gale force winds are occuring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as of 
16/2100 UTC. Surface ridging present west of the Baja California 
offshore waters is anchored by high pressure of 1022 mb located 
west of Baja California Norte near 28N128W. This is generating 
moderate northerly winds over the offshore waters to the west of 
Baja California. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in this area. In 
the southern half of the Gulf of California, NW winds are 
moderate to fresh with seas of 3-4 ft. In the northern Gulf of 
California, moderate NW winds with 1-3 ft seas prevails. 
Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, winds are moderate or 
weaker with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient in southeastern 
Mexico due to strong high pressure surging southward over 
eastern Mexico and combining with relatively lower pressures to 
the south is producing gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gale force winds up to 40 to 45 kt and building 
seas to 16 ft will affect the region tonight through Wed 
evening. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish and reach 
gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate 
to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California offshore 
waters will diminish to gentle speeds Thu morning. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds will continue in the southern half of the 
Gulf of California through early Wed. Looking ahead, another 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is likely to begin by Fri and 
continue through the weekend, with gale force winds possible 
beginning Fri night. 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region with seas to 6 ft. Fresh north winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, where seas are up to around 5 ft. Winds are gentle or 
weaker elsewhere along with seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to northeast to east 
winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo through the rest of 
the week and into the upcoming weekend, possibly reaching near-
gale force Wed night and over the weekend. The area of strong 
winds in the offshore Papagayo region will expand in coverage by 
Wed, and the large area of strong winds will continue into the 
weekend, with developing rough seas to 9 ft by Wed night. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama 
through the week. Otherwise, rough seas in northerly swell will 
affect the Guatemala offshore waters late tonight through Wed 
night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the 
Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Seas of 8-13 ft are north of 24N and west of 134W due to long-
period west to northwest swell. A 1022 mb high center is 
analyzed near 28N128W. The pressure gradient between this 
feature and the ITCZ supports fresh to locally strong trade 
winds from the ITCZ to 17N and west of about 116W. Seas in this 
area are 8-11 ft due to northeast wind waves mixed with 
primarily northwest swell. North of 22N and east of 130W, under 
the high pressure, winds are gentle and seas are 5-6 ft. South 
of the ITCZ, moderate southeast winds and 7-8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the 8-13 ft seas in the northwest part of the 
area will continue through early Wed before briefly subsiding 
late Wed. A cold front is expected to enter the NW part of the 
area on Thu, then weaken early Fri as it reaches from near 
30N132W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds are 
expected Wed through Thu night in advance of the front, north of 
about 25N and west of 130W. These winds then shift to north of 
30N late Thu night. The seas in the northwest part of the area, 
which will briefly subside late Wed, will increase again to 9-14 
ft Thu into Fri night. Elsewhere, conditions are not forecast to 
change much through the end of the week.

$$
Aguirre