000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162102
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure is
building southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Oriental Mountains of Mexico in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico 
cold front. This is resulting in northerly winds funneling 
through the Chivela Pass, leading to gale force northerly winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this afternoon. Gale force 
winds up to 40 to 45 kt and building seas to 16 ft will affect 
the region tonight through Wed evening. Afterward, winds will 
gradually diminish and reach gentle to moderate speeds by Thu 
afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N77.5W to 03.5N83.5W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N116W to 06N128W to 
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08.5N
between 109W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows northerly winds up to 
25 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as of 16/1610 UTC, but these 
winds are forecast to increase to gale force by 16/2100 UTC. 
Surface ridging present west of the Baja California offshore 
waters is anchored by high pressure of 1023 mb located west of 
Baja California Norte near 29N125W. This is generating moderate 
northerly winds over the offshore waters to the west of Baja 
California. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in this area. In the 
southern half of the Gulf of California, NW winds are moderate to
fresh with seas 3 to 4 ft. In the northern Gulf of California, 
moderate NW winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevails. Elsewhere in the 
SW Mexican offshores, winds are moderate or weaker with seas in 
the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward along 
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains of 
Mexico in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front will result in
northerly winds to funnel through the Chivela Pass, leading to 
gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting 
this afternoon. Gale force winds up to 40 to 45 kt and building 
seas to 16 ft will affect the region tonight through Wed 
evening. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish and reach 
gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate 
to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California offshore 
waters will diminish to gentle speeds Thu morning. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will continue in the southern half of the 
Gulf of California through early Wed. Looking ahead, another Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind event is likely to begin by Fri and 
continue through the weekend, with gale force winds possible 
beginning Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region with
seas to 6 ft. Moderate N to NNE winds are in the Gulf of Panama,
where seas are up to around 5 ft. Winds are gentle or weaker 
elsewhere along with seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week and into the 
upcoming weekend, possibly reaching near-gale force Wed night and
over the weekend. The area of strong winds in the offshore 
Papagayo region will expand in coverage by Wed, and the large 
area of strong winds will continue into the weekend, with 
developing rough seas to 9 ft by Wed night. Moderate to fresh N 
to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the week. 
Otherwise, rough seas in northerly swell will affect the 
Guatemala offshore waters late tonight through Wed night due to 
a strong gap wind event forecast for the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Seas of 8-13 ft are N of 24N and W of 134W due to long-period 
west to northwest swell. A 1023 mb high center is analyzed near 
29N125W. The pressure gradient between this feature and the ITCZ
supports fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to 
17N and W of about 116W. Seas in this area are 8-11 ft due to NE
wind waves mixed with NW swell. North of 22N and east of 130W, 
under the high pressure, winds are gentle and seas are 5-6 ft. 
South of the ITCZ, moderate SE winds and 7 to 8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the 8-13 ft seas in the NW part of the area
will continue through early Wed before briefly subsiding late
Wed. A cold front is expected to enter the NW part of the area 
on Thu, then weaken early Fri as it reaches from near 30N132W to
24N140W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected Wed through 
Thu night in advance of the front, N of 25N and W of 130W. These
winds then shift N of 30N late Thu night. The seas in the NW part
of the area, which will briefly subside late Wed, will increase 
again to 9-14 ft Thu into Fri night. Elsewhere, conditions are 
not forecast to change much through the end of the week.

$$
Hagen