000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161558
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure will build 
southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental 
Mountains of Mexico tonight and Wed in the wake of a Gulf of 
Mexico cold front. This will result in northerly winds to funnel 
through the Chivela Pass, leading to gale force northerly winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this afternoon. Gale force 
winds up to 40 kt and building seas to 15 ft will affect the 
region tonight through Wed evening. Afterward, winds will 
gradually diminish and reach gentle to moderate speeds by Thu 
afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 06N89W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ to 04N105W to 07N126W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between
109W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging present west of the Baja California offshore 
waters is anchored by high pressure of 1021 mb located west of
Baja California Norte near 29N124W. This is generating moderate 
to locally fresh northerly winds over the offshore waters to the
west of Baja California. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range in this 
area. In the Gulf of California, NW winds are moderate with seas
2 to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, winds are 
gentle to moderate or weaker with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will build southward 
along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains 
of Mexico tonight and Wed in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold 
front. This will result in northerly winds to funnel through the
Chivela Pass, leading to gale force northerly winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec starting this afternoon. Gale force winds up to 
40 kt and building seas to 15 ft will affect the region tonight 
through Wed evening. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish and
reach gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters will diminish to gentle speeds Thu morning.
Moderate winds will continue in the southern half of the Gulf of
California through early Wed. Looking ahead, another Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event is likely to begin by Fri and continue
through the weekend, with gale force winds possible beginning 
Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo
region with seas to 6 ft. Moderate N to NNE winds are in the 
Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to around 5 ft. Winds are 
gentle or weaker elsewhere along with seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week and into the 
upcoming weekend, possibly reaching near-gale force Wed night.
The area of strong winds in the offshore Papagayo region will 
expand in coverage by Wed, and the large area of strong winds
will continue into the weekend, with developing rough seas to 9 
ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Panama through the week. Otherwise, rough seas in northerly 
swell will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
tonight through late Thu due to a strong gap wind event forecast 
for the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Seas are 8-11 ft are N of 27N and W of 135W due to long-period 
west to northwest swell. A 1021 mb high center is analyzed E of 
the front near 29N124W. The pressure gradient between this 
feature and the ITCZ supports fresh trade winds from the ITCZ to 
16N and W of about 118W. Seas in this area are 8-10 ft due to NE 
wind waves mixed with NW swell. North of 22N and east of 130W, 
under the high pressure, winds are gentle and seas are 5-6 ft. 
South of the ITCZ, moderate SE winds and 7 to 8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the 8-11 ft seas in the NW part of the area 
will increase to 9-13 ft by early this evening and into early 
Wed due to a new set of NW swell that will intrude into the NW 
part of the area. A cold front is expected to enter the NW part 
of the area on Thu, then weaken by early Fri as it reaches from 
near 30N132W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are 
expected Wed through Thu in advance of the front, N of 25N and W 
of 130W. These winds then shift N of 30N late Thu night. Seas 
will be 9-13 ft across that area Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, 
conditions are not forecast to change much through the end of the
week.

$$
Hagen