000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160958
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: Strong high pressure will build 
southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental 
Mountains of Mexico tonight and Wed in the wake of a Gulf of 
Mexico cold front. This will result in northerly winds to funnel 
through the Chivela Pass, leading to gale force northerly winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this afternoon. Strong N 
winds will begin this morning increasing to gale force, with 
seas to 9 ft this afternoon. Gale force winds up to 40 kt and 
building seas to 14 ft will affect the region tonight through 
Wed evening. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish and reach 
gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia, westward to
central Panama to 09N82W and to 07N93W, where it transitions to 
the ITCZ to 06N110W to 07N123W and to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 
118W-123W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 123W-127W,
within 120 nm north of the ITCZ 120W-125W and within 30 nm of
the ITCZ between 111W-115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging present west of the Baja California offshore 
waters is anchored by high pressure of 1020 mb located west-
northwest of northern Baja California near 31N125W. This is 
generating moderate to fresh northerly winds over the offshore 
waters to the west of Baja California. Seas are in the 6-7 ft 
range in this area. In the central and northern Gulf of 
California, NW winds are gentle to moderate with seas to 2 ft. 
Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, winds are gentle to 
moderate or weaker with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will build southward 
along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains 
of Mexico tonight and Wed in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold 
front. This will result in northerly winds to funnel through the
Chivela Pass, leading to gale force northerly winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec starting this afternoon. Strong N winds will begin
this morning increasing to gale force, with seas to 9 ft this 
afternoon. Gale force winds up to 40 kt and building seas to 14 
ft will affect the region tonight through Wed evening. Afterward,
winds will gradually diminish and reach gentle to moderate 
speeds by Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh 
NW to N winds over the Baja California offshore waters will 
diminish to gentle speeds Thu morning. Light to gentle winds in 
the southern half of the Gulf of California will reach moderate 
speeds again Tue through early Wed. Looking ahead, another Gulf 
of Tehuantepec gap wind event is likely to begin by Fri and 
continue through the weekend, with gale force winds possible 
beginning Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The earlier fresh NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo increased 
back to fresh to strong speeds per a 0338Z ASCAT-B pass. Seas 
with these winds are up to 6 ft. Fresh N winds are in the Gulf 
of Panama, where seas are up to around 6 ft. Latest ASCAT data 
passes indicate that winds are gentle or weaker elsewhere along 
with seas of 3-5 ft due to a long-period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week and into the 
upcoming weekend, possibly reaching near-gale force Wed night.
The area of strong winds in the offshore Papagayo region will 
expand in coverage by Wed, and the large area of strong winds
will continue into the weekend, with developing rough seas to 9 
ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Panama through the week. Otherwise, rough seas in northerly 
swell will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
tonight through late Thu due to a strong gap wind event forecast 
for the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh S to SW winds are N of 28N between 131W-138W. Seas of 8-10
ft are N of 27N and W of 132W due to long-period west to 
northwest swell. A 1022 mb high center is analyzed E of the front
near 31N125W. The pressure gradient between this feature and the
ITCZ supports fresh trade winds from the ITCZ to 16N and W of 
about 118W. Seas in this area are 8-10 ft due to NE wind waves 
mixed with NE and NW long-period swell. North of 24N and east of 
130W, under the high pressure, winds are gentle to moderate and 
seas are 5-6 ft. South of the ITCZ, SE winds are moderate in 
speeds along with seas of 6-8 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh S to SW winds N of 28N between
131W-138W will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds this 
afternoon. Seas of 8-10 ft in the NW part of the area will 
subside to just below 10 ft this morning, however. these seas
will increase again to 9-12 ft over the NW waters by early this
evening and into early Wed due to a new set of NW swell that will 
intrude into the NW part of the area. A cold front is expected
to enter the NW part of the area on Thu, then weaken by early 
Fri as it reaches from near 30N132W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong 
S to SW winds are expected Wed through Thu in advance of the 
front, N of 25N and W of 130W. These winds then shift N of 30N 
late Thu night. Seas will build to 9-13 ft across that area Thu 
into Fri. Elsewhere, conditions are not forecast to change much 
through the end of the week.

$$
Aguirre