000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160351
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A cold front moving across the
western Gulf of Mexico today will move E of the Gulf Tue night, 
allowing strong high pressure to build over NE Mexico in the wake
of the front, which will cause northerly winds to funnel through
the Chivela Pass, leading to gale force northerly winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong N winds will begin Tue morning 
increasing to gale force, with seas to 9 ft on Tue afternoon. 
Gale force winds up to 40 kt and building seas to 14 ft will 
affect the region Tue night through Wed evening. Afterward, winds
will gradually diminish and reach gentle to moderate speeds by 
Thu afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia, westward to
southern Costa Rica to 09N85W and to 08N92W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 08N132W to 06N110W to 08N122W to 07N130W and 
to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south 
of the ITCZ between 116W-123W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 120W-127W and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between
109W-112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging present west of the Baja California offshore 
waters is anchored by high pressure of 1020 mb located west-
northwest of northern Baja California near 32N125W. This is 
generating moderate to locally fresh northerly winds over the 
offshore waters to the west of Baja California. Seas are in the 
6-7 ft range in this area. In the central and northern Gulf of 
California, NW winds are gentle to moderate with seas to 2 ft. 
Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, winds are gentle to 
moderate or weaker with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, a cold front moving across the western Gulf of
Mexico will move E of the Gulf Tue night, allowing strong high 
pressure to build over NE Mexico in the wake of the front, which 
will cause northerly winds to funnel through the Chivela Pass, 
leading to gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Strong N winds will begin Tue morning increasing to gale force 
with seas to 9 ft by late Tue afternoon. Gale force winds up to 
40 kt and building seas to 14 ft will affect the region Tue night
through Wed evening. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish 
and reach gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, 
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters will diminish to gentle speeds Thu morning. Light
to gentle winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California 
will reach moderate speeds again Tue through early Wed. Looking 
ahead, another Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is likely to 
begin by Fri and continue through the weekend, with gale force 
winds possible beginning Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The earlier fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of Papagayo have 
recently diminished to fresh speeds along with seas to 6 ft.
Fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are up to 
around 6 ft. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate that winds are 
gentle or weaker elsewhere along with seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week and into the 
upcoming weekend, possibly reaching near-gale force Wed night.
The area of strong winds in the offshore Papagayo region will 
expand in coverage by Wed, and the large area of strong winds
will continue into the weekend, with developing rough seas to 9 
ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Panama through the week. Otherwise, rough seas in northerly swell
will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Wed and
Wed night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the 
Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening stationary front extends from 30N134W to 24N140W.
Fresh S to SW winds are E of the front to a line from 30N131W to
24N140W. Seas range from 8-10 ft N of 24N and W of 132W due to 
long-period west to northwest swell. A 1020 mb high center is 
analyzed ENE of the front near 32N125W. The pressure gradient 
between this feature and the ITCZ supports fresh trade winds from
the ITCZ to 15N and W of 118W. Seas in this area are 8-11 ft due
to mixed waves and NW to N long-period swell. North of 18N and 
east of 130W, under the high pressure, winds are gentle to 
moderate and seas are 5-6 ft. South of the ITCZ, SE winds are 
moderate in speeds along with seas of 6-8 ft.

For the forecast, the remnants of the weakening stationary front
will weaken and lift north of the area Tue. The fresh winds to 
the E of this front will diminish early Tue. A cold front that 
is just crossing 30N140W tonight will weaken as it moves across
the far NW part of the area late tonight into Tue. Seas in the 
NW part of the area will subside below 10 ft late tonight, 
however will increase again to 9-12 ft over the NW waters late 
Tue into Wed due to swell from the cold front, even after it 
weakens. Another cold front will enter the NW part of the area on
Thu and weaken by early Fri as the front reaches from near 
30N131W to 24N139W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected 
Wed through Thu, in advance of the front, N of 25N and W of 130W.
Seas will build to 9-13 ft across that area Thu into Fri. 
Elsewhere, conditions are not forecast to change much through the
end of the week.

$$
Aguirre