000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152103
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A cold front moving across the
Gulf of Mexico today will move E of the Gulf Tue night, allowing
strong high pressure to build over NE Mexico in the wake of the 
front, which will cause northerly winds to funnel through the
Chivela Pass, leading to gale force northerly winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Strong N winds will begin Tue morning increasing
to gale force with seas to 9 ft by late Tue afternoon. Gales up
to 40 kt and building seas to 14 ft will affect the region Tue
night through Wed evening. Afterward, winds will gradually 
diminish and reach gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of western Panama near
08N82W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 07N122W to
06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to
09N between 101W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging extends just west of the Baja California 
offshore waters anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure northwest of
the area near 31N125W. This is generating moderate to locally 
fresh northerly winds over the offshore waters to the west of 
Baja California. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in this area. In the central 
and northern Gulf of California, NW winds are gentle to moderate 
with seas to 2 ft. Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, winds 
are gentle to moderate or weaker with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico 
today will move E of the Gulf Tue night, allowing strong high 
pressure to build over NE Mexico in the wake of the front, which 
will cause northerly winds to funnel through the Chivela Pass, 
leading to gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Strong N winds will begin Tue morning increasing to gale force 
with seas to 9 ft by late Tue afternoon. Gales up to 40 kt and 
building seas to 14 ft will affect the region Tue night through 
Wed evening. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish and reach 
gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate 
to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California offshore 
waters will diminish to gentle speeds Thu morning. Light to 
gentle winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California will
reach moderate speeds again Tue through early Wed. Looking 
ahead, another Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is likely to 
begin by Fri and continue through the weekend, with gale force
winds possible beginning Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A 15/1452 UTC ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh to strong NE
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are up to 6 ft in the
region. In the Gulf of Panama, N to NNE winds have temporarily
diminished to moderate during the afternoon hours with seas to 5
ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker, with seas ranging 
from 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week and into the 
upcoming weekend, possibly reaching near-gale force Wed night.
The area of strong winds in the offshore Papagayo region will 
expand in coverage by Wed, and the large area of strong winds
will continue into the weekend, with developing rough seas to 9 
ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Panama through the week. Otherwise, rough seas in northerly swell
will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Wed 
through Wed night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the
Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front extends from 30N136W to 24N140W. A 15/1810 UTC
ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh S winds E of the front,
mainly N of 25.5N and W of 131W. Seas range from 8 to 10 ft N of
24N and west of 132W. East of this system, a 1023 mb high 
pressure is located near 31N125W. This feature is creating a 
pressure gradient with the ITCZ which is supporting fresh trade 
winds from the ITCZ to 14N and W of 118W. This data is supported
by a recent ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas in this area are 8 to
11 ft. North of 18N and east of 130W, under the high pressure, 
winds are gentle to moderate and seas 5 to 6 ft. South of the 
ITCZ, SE winds are moderate with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range.

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken and lift north
of the area Tue. The fresh winds to the E of this front will
diminish early Tue. A cold front west of the area will weaken as
it approaches 30N140W tonight. Seas in the NW part of the area 
will subside below 10 ft tonight, however will increase again to
9 to 12 ft over the northwest waters late Tue into Wed due to
swell from the cold front, even after it weakens. Another cold
front will enter the NW part of the area on Thu and weaken by
early Fri as the front reaches from 30N131W to 24N139W. Fresh to
strong S to SW winds are expected Wed through Thu, in advance of
the front, north of 25N and west of 130W. Seas will build to 9 to
13 ft across that area Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, conditions are
not forecast to change much through the end of the week.

$$
Hagen